Advance Auto Parts, Inc.

DB:AWN Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.5b

Advance Auto Parts Valuation

Is AWN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AWN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AWN (€41.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€59.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AWN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AWN?

Key metric: As AWN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AWN. This is calculated by dividing AWN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AWN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio55.2x
EarningsUS$47.15m
Market CapUS$2.58b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AWN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AWN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.8x
HBM HORNBACH Baumarkt
25.4xn/a€1.9b
CEC Ceconomy
10.8x22.4%€1.5b
HBH HORNBACH Holding KGaA
7.5x6.8%€1.3b
FIE Fielmann Group
23.5x18.9%€3.3b
AWN Advance Auto Parts
55.2x49.8%€2.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.2x) compared to the peer average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AWN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Specialty Retail Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AWN 55.2xIndustry Avg. 16.2xNo. of Companies12PE01020304050+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.2x) compared to the European Specialty Retail industry average (16.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AWN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AWN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio55.2x
Fair PE Ratio24.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AWN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (55.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AWN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€41.23
€42.25
+2.5%
24.8%€63.38€16.33n/a20
Nov ’25€32.79
€45.41
+38.5%
29.1%€78.61€15.72n/a20
Oct ’25€34.89
€44.11
+26.4%
30.0%€76.13€15.23n/a20
Sep ’25€41.50
€45.26
+9.1%
26.0%€75.95€15.19n/a20
Aug ’25€58.35
€58.25
-0.2%
25.0%€92.39€19.40n/a20
Jul ’25€58.67
€59.00
+0.6%
25.0%€93.13€19.56n/a20
Jun ’25€61.56
€58.66
-4.7%
25.7%€92.34€19.39n/a19
May ’25€70.12
€60.72
-13.4%
23.0%€94.11€32.94n/a20
Apr ’25€78.80
€59.35
-24.7%
23.6%€92.70€32.45n/a20
Mar ’25€62.40
€58.39
-6.4%
22.6%€90.43€32.30n/a20
Feb ’25€61.90
€52.39
-15.4%
25.1%€90.48€29.55n/a21
Jan ’25€55.60
€51.28
-7.8%
24.5%€88.75€28.98n/a20
Dec ’24€46.45
€52.15
+12.3%
25.0%€89.32€29.16n/a20
Nov ’24€49.20
€64.42
+30.9%
19.1%€92.83€39.78€32.7920
Oct ’24€52.10
€68.22
+30.9%
14.3%€92.70€47.30€34.8919
Sep ’24€63.50
€66.65
+5.0%
12.0%€77.76€46.29€41.5017
Aug ’24€67.60
€66.84
-1.1%
12.7%€75.70€44.53€58.3518
Jul ’24€62.60
€72.78
+16.3%
17.9%€118.76€52.07€58.6718
Jun ’24€68.20
€79.73
+16.9%
33.0%€177.52€52.98€61.5619
May ’24€113.20
€138.06
+22.0%
12.0%€174.34€95.84€70.1220
Apr ’24€108.00
€143.12
+32.5%
13.1%€185.30€96.80€78.8020
Mar ’24€136.00
€147.94
+8.8%
13.1%€188.52€98.48€62.4019
Feb ’24€139.00
€153.46
+10.4%
13.3%€191.16€109.24€61.9019
Jan ’24€137.00
€162.96
+18.9%
12.9%€206.10€112.93€55.6019
Dec ’23€144.00
€172.02
+19.5%
13.7%€213.79€117.14€46.4519
Nov ’23€192.00
€209.32
+9.0%
11.4%€255.07€133.61€49.2020

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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