MERLIN Properties SOCIMI, S.A.

DB:MEQA Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.8b

MERLIN Properties SOCIMI Valuation

Is MEQA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MEQA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MEQA (€10.28) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€7.77)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MEQA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MEQA?

Key metric: As MEQA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MEQA. This is calculated by dividing MEQA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MEQA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio45.1x
Earnings€129.34m
Market Cap€5.83b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MEQA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MEQA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.5x
LAND Land Securities Group
42.4x25.9%UK£4.5b
LMP LondonMetric Property
19.6x15.3%UK£4.0b
SGP Stockland
41x17.1%AU$12.5b
BLND British Land
23.1x20.1%UK£3.9b
MEQA MERLIN Properties SOCIMI
45.1x33.2%€5.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MEQA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.1x) compared to the peer average (31.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MEQA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MEQA 45.1xIndustry Avg. 21.9xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MEQA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (45.1x) compared to the European REITs industry average (21.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MEQA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MEQA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio45.1x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MEQA's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MEQA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.28
€12.94
+25.9%
14.1%€15.60€7.52n/a18
Nov ’25€10.20
€12.95
+27.0%
14.1%€15.60€7.52n/a18
Oct ’25€11.29
€12.54
+11.1%
13.7%€15.00€7.52n/a19
Sep ’25€10.78
€12.33
+14.3%
11.2%€14.60€9.70n/a18
Aug ’25€10.54
€12.17
+15.5%
11.0%€14.60€9.70n/a17
Jul ’25€10.55
€12.09
+14.6%
9.2%€14.60€9.70n/a18
Jun ’25€10.89
€11.74
+7.8%
9.7%€14.30€9.70n/a17
May ’25€10.63
€11.29
+6.2%
9.0%€13.10€9.70n/a19
Apr ’25€9.72
€10.77
+10.8%
12.9%€12.70€6.40n/a20
Mar ’25€8.87
€10.73
+21.0%
12.8%€12.70€6.40n/a20
Feb ’25€9.37
€10.66
+13.8%
12.5%€12.50€6.40n/a20
Jan ’25€10.07
€10.17
+1.0%
12.7%€12.50€6.40n/a20
Dec ’24€9.22
€10.11
+9.6%
13.0%€12.50€6.40n/a20
Nov ’24€7.84
€9.96
+27.2%
14.7%€12.50€6.40€10.2017
Oct ’24€7.96
€10.09
+26.9%
15.6%€13.00€6.40€11.2917
Sep ’24€8.13
€10.24
+25.9%
13.4%€13.00€7.90€10.7817
Aug ’24€8.41
€10.24
+21.8%
13.4%€13.00€7.90€10.5417
Jul ’24€7.82
€10.20
+30.5%
13.0%€13.00€7.90€10.5517
Jun ’24€7.70
€10.41
+35.2%
14.2%€13.33€7.90€10.8917
May ’24€8.03
€10.56
+31.5%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€10.6317
Apr ’24€7.89
€10.59
+34.2%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€9.7217
Mar ’24€8.74
€10.60
+21.3%
13.5%€13.33€7.90€8.8717
Feb ’24€8.87
€10.72
+20.9%
14.3%€13.33€7.90€9.3717
Jan ’24€8.81
€10.74
+21.9%
14.3%€13.33€7.80€10.0717
Dec ’23€8.85
€10.82
+22.3%
13.9%€13.33€7.90€9.2217
Nov ’23€8.64
€11.10
+28.5%
13.1%€13.33€7.90€7.8418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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