Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

DB:ES9 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.9b

Empire State Realty Trust Valuation

Is ES9 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ES9 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ES9 (€10.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.66)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ES9 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ES9?

Key metric: As ES9 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ES9. This is calculated by dividing ES9's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ES9's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio40.8x
EarningsUS$45.32m
Market CapUS$3.09b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ES9's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ES9 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average24.9x
ESBA Empire State Realty OP
41.6xn/aUS$3.0b
8960 United Urban Investment
19.7x0.5%JP¥432.9b
BNL Broadstone Net Lease
23.3x-5.0%US$3.4b
KLCC KLCC Property Holdings Berhad
15.1x0.9%RM 14.4b
ES9 Empire State Realty Trust
40.8x-23.6%€3.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ES9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.8x) compared to the peer average (25.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ES9's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ES9 40.8xIndustry Avg. 21.9xNo. of Companies9PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ES9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.8x) compared to the European REITs industry average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ES9's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ES9 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ES9's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ES9 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€10.30
€10.87
+5.5%
10.0%€12.48€9.22n/a5
Nov ’25€9.35
€10.30
+10.2%
7.9%€11.12€8.89n/a5
Oct ’25€9.50
€9.78
+2.9%
9.1%€10.75€8.60n/a5
Sep ’25€9.20
€9.47
+2.9%
18.1%€11.71€6.30n/a6
Aug ’25€9.55
€9.72
+1.7%
18.1%€12.01€6.47n/a6
Jul ’25€8.40
€9.10
+8.4%
13.9%€10.17€6.47n/a6
Jun ’25€8.10
€9.10
+12.4%
13.9%€10.17€6.47n/a6
May ’25€8.25
€9.05
+9.7%
13.9%€10.10€6.43n/a6
Apr ’25€9.15
€9.05
-1.1%
13.9%€10.10€6.43n/a6
Mar ’25€8.80
€9.01
+2.4%
13.4%€10.15€6.46n/a6
Feb ’25€8.40
€8.95
+6.5%
13.5%€10.10€6.43n/a6
Jan ’25€8.55
€8.75
+2.3%
12.8%€9.75€6.50n/a6
Dec ’24€7.80
€8.41
+7.8%
11.6%€9.81€6.54n/a6
Nov ’24€7.60
€8.45
+11.1%
10.4%€9.47€6.63€9.356
Oct ’24€7.10
€8.32
+17.1%
11.2%€9.16€6.41€9.506
Sep ’24€7.65
€8.32
+8.7%
11.2%€9.16€6.41€9.206
Aug ’24€7.70
€7.69
-0.1%
17.8%€9.09€5.46€9.556
Jul ’24€6.60
€7.19
+9.0%
13.7%€8.68€5.48€8.406
Jun ’24€5.60
€7.19
+28.4%
15.9%€8.86€5.60€8.106
May ’24€5.50
€7.17
+30.3%
15.5%€8.65€5.46€8.256
Apr ’24€5.70
€7.47
+31.1%
14.4%€8.83€5.58€9.156
Mar ’24€6.95
€7.78
+11.9%
19.9%€9.38€4.69€8.806
Feb ’24€7.55
€7.63
+1.1%
20.0%€9.49€4.75€8.406
Jan ’24€6.35
€7.63
+20.2%
20.0%€9.49€4.75€8.556
Dec ’23€7.30
€7.80
+6.8%
19.9%€9.60€4.80€7.806
Nov ’23€7.30
€8.20
+12.3%
18.9%€10.04€5.02€7.606

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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