Empire State Realty Trust, Inc.

DB:ES9 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.7b

Empire State Realty Trust Valuation

Is ES9 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ES9 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ES9 (€9.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€14.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ES9 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ES9?

Key metric: As ES9 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ES9. This is calculated by dividing ES9's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ES9's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio37.8x
EarningsUS$45.32m
Market CapUS$2.82b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ES9's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ES9 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average35x
ESBA Empire State Realty OP
38.1xn/aUS$2.8b
8960 United Urban Investment
20x-0.3%JP¥431.2b
T82U Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust
18.9x4.8%S$3.5b
HABA Hamborner REIT
63.2x9.5%€517.3m
ES9 Empire State Realty Trust
37.8x-18.2%€2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ES9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.8x) compared to the peer average (35x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ES9's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European REITs Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ES9 37.8xIndustry Avg. 21.4xNo. of Companies8PE01632486480+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ES9 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (37.8x) compared to the European REITs industry average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ES9's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ES9 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio37.8x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ES9's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ES9 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€9.50
€10.77
+13.4%
10.0%€12.37€9.14n/a5
Dec ’25€9.95
€10.75
+8.1%
10.0%€12.35€9.12n/a5
Nov ’25€9.35
€10.30
+10.2%
7.9%€11.12€8.89n/a5
Oct ’25€9.50
€9.78
+2.9%
9.1%€10.75€8.60n/a5
Sep ’25€9.20
€9.47
+2.9%
18.1%€11.71€6.30n/a6
Aug ’25€9.55
€9.72
+1.7%
18.1%€12.01€6.47n/a6
Jul ’25€8.40
€9.10
+8.4%
13.9%€10.17€6.47n/a6
Jun ’25€8.10
€9.10
+12.4%
13.9%€10.17€6.47n/a6
May ’25€8.25
€9.05
+9.7%
13.9%€10.10€6.43n/a6
Apr ’25€9.15
€9.05
-1.1%
13.9%€10.10€6.43n/a6
Mar ’25€8.80
€9.01
+2.4%
13.4%€10.15€6.46n/a6
Feb ’25€8.40
€8.95
+6.5%
13.5%€10.10€6.43n/a6
Jan ’25€8.55
€8.75
+2.3%
12.8%€9.75€6.50€9.306
Dec ’24€7.80
€8.41
+7.8%
11.6%€9.81€6.54€9.956
Nov ’24€7.60
€8.45
+11.1%
10.4%€9.47€6.63€9.356
Oct ’24€7.10
€8.32
+17.1%
11.2%€9.16€6.41€9.506
Sep ’24€7.65
€8.32
+8.7%
11.2%€9.16€6.41€9.206
Aug ’24€7.70
€7.69
-0.1%
17.8%€9.09€5.46€9.556
Jul ’24€6.60
€7.19
+9.0%
13.7%€8.68€5.48€8.406
Jun ’24€5.60
€7.19
+28.4%
15.9%€8.86€5.60€8.106
May ’24€5.50
€7.17
+30.3%
15.5%€8.65€5.46€8.256
Apr ’24€5.70
€7.47
+31.1%
14.4%€8.83€5.58€9.156
Mar ’24€6.95
€7.78
+11.9%
19.9%€9.38€4.69€8.806
Feb ’24€7.55
€7.63
+1.1%
20.0%€9.49€4.75€8.406
Jan ’24€6.35
€7.63
+20.2%
20.0%€9.49€4.75€8.556

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/05 07:56
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Empire State Realty Trust, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John KimBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Jing Xian Tan BonnelBofA Global Research
Michael GormanBTIG