Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Aroundtown SA (ETR:AT1) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Aroundtown
What Is Aroundtown's Net Debt?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Aroundtown had €14.8b of debt in September 2022, down from €15.7b, one year before. However, it does have €2.27b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about €12.5b.
How Strong Is Aroundtown's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Aroundtown had liabilities of €1.31b falling due within a year, and liabilities of €18.4b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of €2.27b as well as receivables valued at €1.23b due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €16.3b.
The deficiency here weighs heavily on the €3.32b company itself, as if a child were struggling under the weight of an enormous back-pack full of books, his sports gear, and a trumpet. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. At the end of the day, Aroundtown would probably need a major re-capitalization if its creditors were to demand repayment.
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 11.9, it's fair to say Aroundtown does have a significant amount of debt. However, its interest coverage of 5.4 is reasonably strong, which is a good sign. Notably Aroundtown's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Aroundtown's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Aroundtown produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 63% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.
Our View
To be frank both Aroundtown's net debt to EBITDA and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Aroundtown has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. To that end, you should learn about the 6 warning signs we've spotted with Aroundtown (including 2 which shouldn't be ignored) .
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About XTRA:AT1
Aroundtown
Operates as a real estate company in Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and internationally.
Undervalued with moderate growth potential.