Longfor Group Holdings Limited

DB:RLF Stock Report

Market Cap: €8.9b

Longfor Group Holdings Valuation

Is RLF undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RLF when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RLF (€1.25) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€5.92)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RLF is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RLF?

Key metric: As RLF is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RLF. This is calculated by dividing RLF's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RLF's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio6.3x
EarningsCN¥10.66b
Market CapCN¥67.47b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RLF's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RLF vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average26.8x
INS Instone Real Estate Group
25.5x37.9%€360.9m
CRZK CR Energy
9.9x39.8%€122.8m
SPB Sedlmayr Grund und Immobilien
65.6xn/a€903.2m
EMAARDEV Emaar Development PJSC
6.3x4.6%د.إ45.2b
RLF Longfor Group Holdings
6.3x4.5%€72.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RLF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the peer average (26.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RLF's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Real Estate Industry?

29 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RLF 6.3xIndustry Avg. 18.1xNo. of Companies33PE01632486480+
29 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RLF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the European Real Estate industry average (18x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RLF's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RLF PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio6.3x
Fair PE Ratio13.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RLF is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (6.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RLF forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.25
€1.54
+22.9%
24.7%€2.44€1.07n/a21
Nov ’25€1.50
€1.53
+2.0%
24.5%€2.41€1.06n/a21
Oct ’25€1.70
€1.37
-19.4%
20.4%€2.39€1.05n/a21
Sep ’25€1.02
€1.35
+32.9%
12.5%€1.75€1.08n/a21
Aug ’25€1.11
€1.64
+48.2%
20.2%€2.60€1.14n/a20
Jul ’25€1.24
€1.83
+47.9%
23.0%€2.82€1.14n/a21
Jun ’25€1.40
€1.79
+27.6%
23.5%€2.79€1.13n/a21
May ’25€1.32
€1.66
+26.1%
21.2%€2.83€1.14n/a21
Apr ’25€1.24
€1.65
+32.7%
21.4%€2.83€1.14n/a21
Mar ’25€1.10
€2.09
+89.8%
31.1%€3.79€1.05n/a22
Feb ’25€0.91
€2.43
+166.9%
30.2%€4.13€1.07n/a22
Jan ’25€1.39
€2.87
+106.7%
19.4%€4.12€2.03n/a21
Dec ’24€1.55
€2.99
+93.1%
17.1%€4.16€2.05n/a21
Nov ’24€1.32
€3.17
+140.4%
25.9%€6.14€2.05€1.5021
Oct ’24€1.61
€3.21
+99.1%
24.0%€6.14€2.40€1.7022
Sep ’24€2.08
€3.24
+55.9%
23.7%€6.04€2.36€1.0221
Aug ’24€2.28
€3.59
+57.3%
18.8%€6.03€2.73€1.1121
Jul ’24€2.16
€3.76
+74.0%
18.7%€6.25€2.87€1.2420
Jun ’24€1.67
€3.76
+125.3%
18.7%€6.27€2.88€1.4020
May ’24€2.52
€3.80
+50.9%
19.1%€6.38€2.89€1.3220
Apr ’24€2.54
€3.87
+52.3%
19.7%€6.48€2.94€1.2420
Mar ’24€2.86
€4.45
+55.5%
24.5%€6.66€3.00€1.1020
Feb ’24€2.96
€4.37
+47.8%
23.5%€6.66€3.00€0.9119
Jan ’24€2.80
€4.33
+54.5%
26.5%€6.62€1.89€1.3919
Dec ’23€2.74
€4.33
+58.0%
29.8%€6.60€1.88€1.5518
Nov ’23€1.35
€4.51
+233.9%
30.7%€6.78€1.93€1.3219

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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