Forestar Group Inc.

DB:4F31 Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.0b

Forestar Group Valuation

Is 4F31 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4F31 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

€6.69
Fair Value
195.9% overvalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 4F31 (€19.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€6.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4F31 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4F31?

Key metric: As 4F31 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4F31. This is calculated by dividing 4F31's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4F31's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7x
EarningsUS$167.90m
Market CapUS$1.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4F31's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4F31 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.8x
INS Instone Real Estate Group
6.4x4.83%€319.7m
SPB Sedlmayr Grund und Immobilien
26.8xn/a€925.2m
GWK3 GAG Immobilien
23.6xn/a€816.4m
DEQ Deutsche EuroShop
10.3x3.80%€1.4b
4F31 Forestar Group
7x3.37%€1.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4F31 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the peer average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4F31's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Real Estate Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GYC Grand City Properties
3.5x-31.81%US$2.19b
GTY Gateway Real Estate
0.5xn/aUS$92.14m
AAA A.A.A. Allgemeine Anlageverwaltung
2.6xn/aUS$47.44m
ADJ Adler Group
0.03xn/aUS$37.97m
4F31 7.0xIndustry Avg. 10.8xNo. of Companies7PE01632486480+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4F31 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the German Real Estate industry average (10.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4F31's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4F31 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7x
Fair PE Ratio11.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4F31 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4F31 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€19.80
€28.31
+43.00%
13.50%€31.36€21.78n/a4
Nov ’26€22.60
€27.59
+22.10%
16.39%€31.04€19.83n/a4
Oct ’26€22.20
€25.06
+12.88%
12.88%€28.27€19.70n/a4
Sep ’26€23.40
€25.06
+7.09%
12.88%€28.27€19.70n/a4
Aug ’26€21.40
€25.23
+17.92%
12.88%€28.47€19.84n/a4
Jul ’26€16.70
€22.28
+33.42%
10.23%€24.31€19.10n/a3
Jun ’26€16.80
€23.55
+40.17%
10.16%€25.77€19.55n/a4
May ’26€16.80
€24.07
+43.28%
13.24%€28.01€19.26n/a4
Apr ’26€19.40
€31.87
+64.30%
11.91%€38.34€28.76n/a4
Mar ’26€21.40
€31.87
+48.94%
11.91%€38.34€28.76n/a4
Feb ’26€23.60
€31.87
+35.06%
11.91%€38.34€28.76n/a4
Jan ’26€24.60
€37.09
+50.76%
5.45%€40.12€34.52n/a4
Dec ’25€28.40
€37.09
+30.59%
5.45%€40.12€34.52n/a4
Nov ’25€29.00
€36.37
+25.42%
6.33%€39.59€33.15€22.604
Oct ’25€29.00
€35.75
+23.29%
6.92%€39.68€33.22€22.204
Sep ’25€27.80
€35.75
+28.61%
6.92%€39.68€33.22€23.404
Aug ’25€29.20
€35.75
+22.45%
6.92%€39.68€33.22€21.404
Jul ’25€29.60
€37.59
+27.00%
7.85%€42.31€34.49€16.704
Jun ’25€30.60
€37.59
+22.85%
7.85%€42.31€34.49€16.804
May ’25€29.40
€37.90
+28.93%
6.03%€41.31€35.21€16.804
Apr ’25€36.40
€37.37
+2.65%
5.66%€40.59€35.06€19.404
Mar ’25€31.20
€37.37
+19.76%
5.66%€40.59€35.06€21.404
Feb ’25€28.80
€37.37
+29.74%
5.66%€40.59€35.06€23.604
Jan ’25€30.40
€32.73
+7.67%
5.73%€35.83€30.78€24.604
Dec ’24€28.00
€32.73
+16.90%
5.73%€35.83€30.78€28.404
Nov ’24€22.40
€29.48
+31.61%
3.23%€30.43€28.53€29.004
€27.87
Fair Value
29.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
4
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/11/19 12:25
End of Day Share Price 2025/11/19 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2025/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Forestar Group Inc. is covered by 9 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
John LovalloBofA Global Research
Anthony PettinariCitigroup Inc
Aaron HechtCitizens JMP Securities, LLC