Stock Analysis

Vonovia (ETR:VNA) shareholders have endured a 55% loss from investing in the stock three years ago

XTRA:VNA
Source: Shutterstock

While not a mind-blowing move, it is good to see that the Vonovia SE (ETR:VNA) share price has gained 25% in the last three months. But that is small recompense for the exasperating returns over three years. Regrettably, the share price slid 62% in that period. So it's good to see it climbing back up. After all, could be that the fall was overdone.

So let's have a look and see if the longer term performance of the company has been in line with the underlying business' progress.

Check out our latest analysis for Vonovia

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Vonovia saw its share price decline over the three years in which its EPS also dropped, falling to a loss. Extraordinary items contributed to this situation. Since the company has fallen to a loss making position, it's hard to compare the change in EPS with the share price change. However, we can say we'd expect to see a falling share price in this scenario.

You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
XTRA:VNA Earnings Per Share Growth October 5th 2023

Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.

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What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Vonovia the TSR over the last 3 years was -55%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Vonovia shareholders gained a total return of 6.5% during the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. On the bright side, that's still a gain, and it is certainly better than the yearly loss of about 5% endured over half a decade. So this might be a sign the business has turned its fortunes around. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Vonovia (of which 1 doesn't sit too well with us!) you should know about.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on German exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.