Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for DB:YB4P using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
DB:YB4P DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
Savara's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
Savara's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Savara's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Savara's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Unable to determine if Savara is high growth as no revenue estimate data is available.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Savara's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Mr. Robert Neville, also known as Rob, Co-founded Savara Inc. in June 2008 and has been its Chief Executive Officer since June 2008. Mr. Neville has been the Executive Chairman of Savara, Inc. since June 2008. Mr. Neville Co-founded Evity, Inc. in 1999 and served as its Chief Executive Officer from June 1998 to May 2000. Mr. Neville founded the management consulting company Clockwise Consulting. From January 2003 to December 2004, he served as Managing Director of Clockwise Consulting, where he worked with the Texas Children’s Hospital and the Baylor College of Medicine to develop an ICU-based monitoring and diagnostic device. From June 2000 to December 2002, he served as Vice President of Engineering at BMC Software, a software company providing information technology management solutions, where he oversaw the integration and expansion of the product line based on the acquisition of his previous company, Evity, Inc. Mr. Neville partnered with local biotech companies, the Texas Children's Hospital and the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston to develop an ICU-based monitoring and diagnostic device. He was honored as a finalist for the Ernst & Young Entrepreneur of the Year award. He holds a post-graduate Engineering degree from the University of Natal South Africa.
Rob's compensation has increased whilst company is loss making.
Rob's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The tenure for the Savara management team is about average.
President & COO
CFO & Secretary
Vice President of Legal Affairs
Head of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications
Head of Pharmaceutical Development
Head of Clinical Development
Head of Nonclinical Development
Head of Regulatory Affairs
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the Savara board of directors is about average.
Savara Inc. operates as an orphan lung disease company. Its lead product candidate includes Molgradex, an inhaled granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, which is in Phase III development stage for the treatment of autoimmune pulmonary alveolar proteinosis; and in Phase IIa development stage for treating nontuberculous mycobacterial lung infection. The company is also developing AeroVanc, an inhaled vancomycin that is in Phase III stage for the treatment of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus lung infection in individuals living with cystic fibrosis. Savara Inc. is headquartered in Austin, Texas.
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