Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Valuation
Is UP0 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of UP0 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: UP0 (€45.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€456.62)
Significantly Below Fair Value: UP0 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UP0?
Key metric: As UP0 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is UP0's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 8.4x |
| Sales | US$522.75m |
| Market Cap | US$4.40b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 8.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -9x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does UP0's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 8.4x | ||
BIO3 Biotest | 1.5x | 3.6% | €1.3b |
FYB Formycon | 14.5x | 33.4% | €882.0m |
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma | 13.2x | 16.6% | €111.9m |
1SXP SCHOTT Pharma KGaA | 4.4x | 10.7% | €4.2b |
UP0 Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical | 8.4x | 32.0% | €4.4b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: UP0 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.4x) compared to the peer average (8.4x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does UP0's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: UP0 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.4x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (8x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is UP0's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 8.4x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 4.2x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: UP0 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (8.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €45.40 | €87.70 +93.2% | 27.9% | €132.83 | €45.54 | n/a | 21 |
| Nov ’25 | €46.40 | €84.68 +82.5% | 28.2% | €129.46 | €42.54 | n/a | 21 |
| Oct ’25 | €49.60 | €81.85 +65.0% | 29.4% | €127.32 | €41.83 | n/a | 21 |
| Sep ’25 | €51.00 | €81.85 +60.5% | 29.4% | €127.32 | €41.83 | n/a | 21 |
| Aug ’25 | €41.60 | €83.45 +100.6% | 31.0% | €129.74 | €39.85 | n/a | 21 |
| Jul ’25 | €38.20 | €83.77 +119.3% | 30.9% | €130.38 | €41.91 | n/a | 21 |
| Jun ’25 | €35.60 | €82.61 +132.1% | 31.2% | €129.05 | €44.25 | n/a | 21 |
| May ’25 | €41.00 | €83.65 +104.0% | 30.7% | €130.82 | €44.85 | n/a | 21 |
| Apr ’25 | €43.20 | €82.86 +91.8% | 31.2% | €128.81 | €44.16 | n/a | 20 |
| Mar ’25 | €47.80 | €82.81 +73.2% | 31.3% | €129.02 | €44.24 | n/a | 20 |
| Feb ’25 | €40.80 | €83.70 +105.1% | 31.5% | €129.12 | €43.35 | n/a | 20 |
| Jan ’25 | €43.60 | €81.72 +87.4% | 32.9% | €127.54 | €39.17 | n/a | 20 |
| Dec ’24 | €35.60 | €84.26 +136.7% | 32.8% | €128.59 | €39.50 | n/a | 19 |
| Nov ’24 | €33.40 | €87.05 +160.6% | 33.5% | €132.47 | €40.69 | €46.40 | 19 |
| Oct ’24 | €33.20 | €85.31 +157.0% | 32.6% | €131.03 | €43.99 | €49.60 | 19 |
| Sep ’24 | €33.80 | €84.27 +149.3% | 31.7% | €129.08 | €43.33 | €51.00 | 20 |
| Aug ’24 | €39.20 | €83.90 +114.0% | 31.6% | €127.47 | €44.61 | €41.60 | 20 |
| Jul ’24 | €42.80 | €86.24 +101.5% | 31.4% | €130.89 | €47.68 | €38.20 | 20 |
| Jun ’24 | €46.00 | €84.58 +83.9% | 32.6% | €130.20 | €44.64 | €35.60 | 20 |
| May ’24 | €38.40 | €83.57 +117.6% | 32.9% | €126.88 | €42.60 | €41.00 | 19 |
| Apr ’24 | €35.40 | €84.00 +137.3% | 33.7% | €129.07 | €43.33 | €43.20 | 18 |
| Mar ’24 | €41.80 | €85.64 +104.9% | 33.4% | €131.98 | €44.31 | €47.80 | 19 |
| Feb ’24 | €41.40 | €84.09 +103.1% | 34.8% | €131.60 | €44.17 | €40.80 | 19 |
| Jan ’24 | €42.20 | €87.34 +107.0% | 34.5% | €133.55 | €45.76 | €43.60 | 19 |
| Dec ’23 | €34.60 | €93.96 +171.6% | 34.7% | €138.52 | €47.47 | €35.60 | 18 |
| Nov ’23 | €40.80 | €107.26 +162.9% | 34.6% | €185.65 | €50.18 | €33.40 | 18 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
Discover undervalued companies
Perrigo
US$3.9b
Provides over-the-counter health and wellness solutions to enhance individual well-being in the United States, Europe, and internationally.
PIG
US$26.89
7D
4.5%
1Y
-3.3%
Collegium Pharmaceutical
US$983.6m
A specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development and commercialization of medicines for pain management.
354
US$29.00
7D
0%
1Y
23.9%
Almirall
€1.9b
A biopharmaceutical company, engages in the purchase, manufacture, storage, and sale of skin-health medicines in Europe, the Middle East, the United States, Asia, and Africa.
E2Z
€8.70
7D
4.9%
1Y
3.8%