Novavax Valuation
Is NVV1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
4/6Valuation Score 4/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of NVV1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: NVV1 (€8.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€36.96)
Significantly Below Fair Value: NVV1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for NVV1?
Key metric: As NVV1 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is NVV1's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 1.5x |
| Sales | US$885.19m |
| Market Cap | US$1.36b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.8x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | -2.9x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does NVV1's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 7.6x | ||
BIO3 Biotest | 1.5x | 3.6% | €1.4b |
FYB Formycon | 13.6x | 33.4% | €827.2m |
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma | 12.3x | 16.6% | €103.9m |
MDG1 Medigene | 3x | 16.1% | €22.6m |
NVV1 Novavax | 1.5x | -10.2% | €1.4b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: NVV1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the peer average (7.6x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does NVV1's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: NVV1 is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (8.1x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is NVV1's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 1.5x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 1.3x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: NVV1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €8.20 | €15.26 +86.1% | 39.5% | €23.85 | €8.59 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’25 | €8.61 | €16.42 +90.8% | 34.5% | €23.95 | €8.29 | n/a | 6 |
| Oct ’25 | €11.01 | €16.62 +50.9% | 41.5% | €28.36 | €8.23 | n/a | 6 |
| Sep ’25 | €10.68 | €16.62 +55.6% | 41.5% | €28.36 | €8.23 | n/a | 6 |
| Aug ’25 | €11.48 | €17.73 +54.4% | 45.0% | €28.68 | €7.40 | n/a | 6 |
| Jul ’25 | €12.54 | €21.30 +69.9% | 42.6% | €35.50 | €9.34 | n/a | 5 |
| Jun ’25 | €13.71 | €19.98 +45.8% | 48.9% | €35.15 | €9.25 | n/a | 5 |
| May ’25 | €4.16 | €14.21 +241.5% | 81.2% | €35.07 | €3.69 | n/a | 5 |
| Apr ’25 | €4.42 | €14.21 +221.4% | 81.2% | €35.07 | €3.69 | n/a | 5 |
| Mar ’25 | €4.81 | €14.21 +195.2% | 81.2% | €35.07 | €3.69 | n/a | 5 |
| Feb ’25 | €3.71 | €17.73 +377.4% | 73.3% | €34.73 | €3.66 | n/a | 5 |
| Jan ’25 | €4.46 | €18.02 +304.0% | 71.5% | €34.94 | €4.60 | n/a | 5 |
| Dec ’24 | €5.07 | €18.02 +255.2% | 71.5% | €34.94 | €4.60 | n/a | 5 |
| Nov ’24 | €6.65 | €18.82 +182.9% | 65.0% | €34.71 | €4.57 | €8.61 | 5 |
| Oct ’24 | €6.89 | €18.82 +173.1% | 65.0% | €34.71 | €4.57 | €11.01 | 5 |
| Sep ’24 | €7.64 | €18.82 +146.2% | 65.0% | €34.71 | €4.57 | €10.68 | 5 |
| Aug ’24 | €7.90 | €19.64 +148.6% | 60.7% | €36.60 | €8.04 | €11.48 | 5 |
| Jul ’24 | €7.09 | €21.04 +196.7% | 54.0% | €37.78 | €8.29 | €12.54 | 6 |
| Jun ’24 | €7.08 | €21.04 +197.2% | 54.0% | €37.78 | €8.29 | €13.71 | 6 |
| May ’24 | €6.87 | €35.88 +422.5% | 95.6% | €100.35 | €9.12 | €4.16 | 6 |
| Apr ’24 | €6.31 | €43.92 +596.3% | 75.7% | €103.17 | €9.38 | €4.42 | 6 |
| Mar ’24 | €6.36 | €43.92 +590.8% | 75.7% | €103.17 | €9.38 | €4.81 | 6 |
| Feb ’24 | €10.21 | €51.99 +409.4% | 62.3% | €103.35 | €12.21 | €3.71 | 6 |
| Jan ’24 | €9.00 | €57.43 +538.0% | 55.2% | €102.73 | €12.14 | €4.46 | 6 |
| Dec ’23 | €15.95 | €76.69 +380.7% | 80.5% | €203.09 | €15.70 | €5.07 | 6 |
| Nov ’23 | €24.39 | €83.62 +242.9% | 77.9% | €212.82 | €16.45 | €6.65 | 6 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.
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