Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.

DB:IKAP Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.2b

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Valuation

Is IKAP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of IKAP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: IKAP (€8.32) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€33.05)

Significantly Below Fair Value: IKAP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for IKAP?

Key metric: As IKAP is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for IKAP. This is calculated by dividing IKAP's market cap by their current revenue.
What is IKAP's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio5.8x
SalesUS$220.36m
Market CapUS$1.27b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does IKAP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for IKAP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average9.5x
FYB Formycon
14.8x33.4%€902.3m
BIO3 Biotest
1.5x3.6%€1.4b
HPHA Heidelberg Pharma
13.3x16.6%€112.8m
2INV 2invest
8.3xn/a€64.4m
IKAP Aurinia Pharmaceuticals
5.8x17.3%€1.3b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: IKAP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.8x) compared to the peer average (9.5x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does IKAP's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Biotechs Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
CNW co.don
0.7xn/aUS$6.97m
V9Z Aceragen
0.4xn/aUS$3.12m
PA8 Paion
0.2x30.2%US$2.78m
V9Z Aceragen
0.3x-161.8%US$2.18m
IKAP 5.8xIndustry Avg. 8.0xNo. of Companies6PS0612182430+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: IKAP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.8x) compared to the European Biotechs industry average (8x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is IKAP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

IKAP PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio5.8x
Fair PS Ratio3.9x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: IKAP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (5.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst IKAP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€8.32
€10.11
+21.5%
15.1%€12.13€7.46n/a7
Nov ’25€6.58
€8.78
+33.3%
21.5%€11.68€5.39n/a7
Oct ’25€6.42
€8.78
+36.8%
21.5%€11.68€5.39n/a7
Sep ’25€6.03
€8.87
+47.1%
22.9%€12.05€5.56n/a7
Aug ’25€5.13
€8.87
+73.0%
22.9%€12.05€5.56n/a7
Jul ’25€5.17
€9.46
+83.0%
28.6%€13.98€5.59n/a7
Jun ’25€4.83
€9.46
+96.0%
28.6%€13.98€5.59n/a7
May ’25€4.70
€9.77
+108.0%
23.1%€13.86€7.39n/a7
Apr ’25€4.54
€9.77
+115.4%
23.1%€13.86€7.39n/a7
Mar ’25€5.21
€9.77
+87.5%
23.1%€13.86€7.39n/a7
Feb ’25€6.98
€12.06
+72.8%
14.3%€13.69€8.67n/a7
Jan ’25€8.19
€12.32
+50.5%
14.3%€13.99€8.86n/a7
Dec ’24€7.76
€12.32
+58.8%
14.3%€13.99€8.86€8.277
Nov ’24€6.65
€13.15
+97.7%
8.5%€14.09€11.27€6.587
Oct ’24€7.23
€13.15
+81.9%
8.5%€14.09€11.27€6.427
Sep ’24€8.70
€12.72
+46.2%
8.5%€13.63€10.90€6.037
Aug ’24€9.54
€12.60
+32.0%
9.3%€13.78€11.02€5.137
Jul ’24€8.77
€12.62
+43.9%
9.3%€13.80€11.04€5.177
Jun ’24€8.40
€12.80
+52.3%
9.3%€14.00€11.20€4.837
May ’24€10.08
€11.78
+16.9%
17.0%€13.59€8.16€4.707
Apr ’24€9.97
€12.19
+22.3%
17.0%€14.07€8.44€4.547
Mar ’24€8.31
€12.19
+46.7%
17.0%€14.07€8.44€5.217
Feb ’24€8.26
€11.51
+39.4%
24.0%€13.75€5.04€6.988
Jan ’24€3.43
€11.85
+245.7%
25.2%€14.96€5.49€8.198
Dec ’23€4.77
€11.85
+148.1%
25.2%€14.96€5.49€7.768

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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