Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BST:CJH using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for
is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method.
We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
BST:CJH DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Amount off the current price
is available for.
Share price is
vs Future cash flow value of
Current Discount Checks
to be considered undervalued it must be available for at least 20% below the
current price. Less than 40% is even better.
CanSino Biologics's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a moderate discount (> 20%).
CanSino Biologics's share price is below the future cash flow value, and at a substantial discount (> 40%).
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for
it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing
when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.
The amount the stock market is willing to pay for
is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
CanSino Biologics's earnings available for a low price, and how does
this compare to other companies in the same industry?
CanSino Biologics's earnings are expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
CanSino Biologics's revenue is expected to grow significantly at over 20% yearly.
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can
be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at
predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates
looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
CanSino Biologics's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the
industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the
past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent
earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
has a total score of
0/6, see the detailed checks below.
Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.
A company's financial position is much like your own financial position,
it includes everything you own
The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up
CanSino Biologics's finances.
The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
CanSino Biologics is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
CanSino Biologics's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of
CanSino Biologics's finances. If any of them are yellow this
indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 1.5x debt.
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t
however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest
on its debts this may have impacts in the future.
The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to
see the red area (debt) decreasing.
If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and
whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at
unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have
been around for and insider trading.
TENURE AS CEO
Dr. Xuefeng Yu Co-Founded CanSino Biologics Inc. Dr. Yu was appointed as an Executive Director on January 13, 2009 and has served as the Chief Executive Officer of CanSino Biologics Inc. since January 2009. Dr. Yu led the introduction of a new reconstituted tuberculosis vaccine from McMaster University in Canada and the development of such vaccine was supported by the Aeras Global TB Vaccine Foundation and the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China. He also led the introduction of adenoviral vector production cell lines and related production technology from the National Research Institute of Canada, which laid the foundation for the development of Ad5-EBOV. Dr. Yu is an experienced in biotech research and development. From September 1990 to June 1991, Dr. Yu worked as a Lecturer of the biology department in Nankai University. From 1996 to 1998, Dr. Yu served as a Scientist at IBEX Technologies Inc., during which time he also studied in McGill University. Dr. Yu joined Sanofi Pasteur in May 1998 and was in the position of Director of fermentation development in Canada when he left the company in August 2009. Dr. Yu has been recognized as a Member of the “Thousand Talents Program” in Tianjin by Tianjin Municipal Government in February 2010 and a Member of the “Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Biomedical Entrepreneurship Leading Personnel” by Tianjin Municipal Government in January 2010. Dr. Yu obtained a bachelor’s degree in Microbiology in July 1985 and a master’s degree in Microbiology in June 1988 from Nankai University. He received his doctorate degree in microbiology from McGill University in Canada in June 1998.
Insufficient data for Xuefeng to compare compensation growth.
Insufficient data for Xuefeng to establish whether their remuneration is reasonable compared to companies of similar size in Germany.
Management Team Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
management team in years:
The average tenure for the CanSino Biologics management team is less than 2 years, this suggests a new team.
VP of Finance & Capital Markets and Secretary of the Board
Senior Director of New Technology Department
Vice President of Marketing Department
Vice President of Sales
Joint Company Secretary
Board of Directors Tenure
Average tenure and age of the
board of directors in years:
The tenure for the CanSino Biologics board of directors is about average.
CanSino Biologics Inc. focuses on developing, manufacturing, and commercializing vaccines in the People’s Republic of China. Its vaccines include Ad5-EBOV, an Ebola virus vaccine; MCV4 vaccine that is Phase III clinical trial for the prevention of N. meningitides; MCV2 vaccine for treating N. meningitides; DTcP vaccine is for infants, which is in Phase I clinical trails; and DTcP Booster vaccine that is in Phase I clinical trial for addresses the weaker protection preventing pertussis after primary vaccination. The company’s product candidates also comprise Tdcp Adolescent and Adult vaccine, which is in Phase I clinical trial for treating pertussis; TB Booster, a 5 adenovirus-based tuberculosis vaccine; PBPV, a serotype-independent protein-based pneumococcal vaccine, which is in Phase I clinical trial; and PCV13i, a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine that is in Phase I clinical trial. It is also developing various preclinical stage products, including CSB016 for treating shingles; CSB014, a combination vaccine; CSB105 to treat meningitis; CSB107 for polio; CSB012 for treating adenovirus; and CSB013 for ZIKA virus. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Tianjin, the People’s Republic of China.
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