Aris Mining Corporation

DB:ZP1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.8b

Aris Mining Valuation

Is ZP1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ZP1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ZP1's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate ZP1's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ZP1?

Key metric: As ZP1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ZP1. This is calculated by dividing ZP1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ZP1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio67.8x
EarningsUS$49.17m
Market CapUS$3.33b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ZP1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ZP1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average47.8x
NDA Aurubis
9.8x-9.84%€5.3b
TKA thyssenkrupp
12.2x21.51%€5.7b
FPE3 Fuchs
16.8x7.35%€4.4b
WCH Wacker Chemie
152.5x59.87%€3.3b
ZP1 Aris Mining
67.8x85.61%€4.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ZP1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (67.8x) compared to the peer average (47.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ZP1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ZP1 67.8xIndustry Avg. 16.6xNo. of Companies18PE01020304050+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ZP1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (67.8x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (16.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ZP1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ZP1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio67.8x
Fair PE Ratio62.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ZP1 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (67.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (62.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ZP1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€14.40
€17.39
+20.73%
6.21%€19.07€15.74n/a5
Dec ’26€12.10
€16.30
+34.71%
13.93%€18.99€13.17n/a5
Nov ’26€8.57
€14.59
+70.33%
11.31%€16.87€11.79n/a5
Oct ’26€8.29
€11.61
+40.12%
4.80%€12.32€11.01n/a5
Sep ’26€7.31
€9.04
+23.69%
12.13%€10.41€7.77n/a5
Aug ’26€6.18
€9.15
+48.18%
13.52%€10.89€7.76n/a5
Jul ’26€5.73
€8.88
+55.07%
13.73%€10.81€7.57n/a5
Jun ’26€5.51
€8.56
+55.37%
22.27%€11.23€6.16n/a5
May ’26€4.54
€8.56
+88.58%
22.32%€11.23€6.18n/a5
Apr ’26€4.36
€8.01
+83.83%
13.78%€9.82€6.77n/a5
Mar ’26€3.42
€7.43
+117.24%
23.11%€10.01€5.36n/a5
Feb ’26€3.69
€7.41
+100.92%
23.15%€10.00€5.33n/a5
Jan ’26€3.33
€7.56
+126.82%
16.19%€9.22€5.83n/a6
Dec ’25€3.59
€7.36
+105.13%
17.73%€9.10€5.73€12.106
Nov ’25€4.21
€7.48
+77.55%
17.06%€9.46€5.99€8.576
Oct ’25€4.12
€6.96
+68.91%
20.80%€9.14€5.25€8.296
Sep ’25€4.12
€6.51
+57.92%
23.70%€8.54€4.65€7.316
Aug ’25€4.04
€6.68
+65.38%
22.52%€8.68€4.70€6.186
Jul ’25€3.37
€6.48
+92.07%
24.02%€8.37€4.78€5.736
Jun ’25€3.98
€6.32
+58.82%
25.19%€8.24€4.39€5.516
May ’25€3.64
€6.36
+74.72%
24.80%€8.18€4.44€4.546
Apr ’25€3.14
€5.96
+89.92%
29.90%€8.25€4.00€4.366
Mar ’25€2.48
€5.87
+136.83%
30.56%€8.22€3.97€3.426
Feb ’25€2.82
€5.87
+108.23%
30.94%€8.25€3.98€3.696
Jan ’25€2.96
€5.64
+90.66%
29.18%€8.06€3.85€3.336
Dec ’24€2.88
€5.49
+90.70%
31.07%€8.02€3.83€3.596
€18.18
Fair Value
20.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
5
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/12/28 05:04
End of Day Share Price 2025/12/23 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Aris Mining Corporation is covered by 7 analysts. 3 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Brian QuastBMO Capital Markets Equity Research
Carey MacRuryCanaccord Genuity
Richard GrayCormark Securities Inc.