Warrior Met Coal, Inc.

DB:WJ4 Stock Report

Market Cap: €3.5b

Warrior Met Coal Valuation

Is WJ4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WJ4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WJ4 (€65) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€48.73)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WJ4 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WJ4?

Key metric: As WJ4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for WJ4. This is calculated by dividing WJ4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is WJ4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.7x
EarningsUS$378.34m
Market CapUS$3.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does WJ4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for WJ4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.9x
EIS Eisen- und Hüttenwerke
18.5xn/a€200.6m
NDA Aurubis
9x-6.2%€3.5b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.8x37.0%€3.6b
FPE3 Fuchs
19.2x8.9%€5.1b
WJ4 Warrior Met Coal
10.1x-3.8%€3.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: WJ4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the peer average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does WJ4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

15 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WJ4 9.7xIndustry Avg. 12.4xNo. of Companies15PE0816243240+
15 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: WJ4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (12.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WJ4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WJ4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.7x
Fair PE Ratio13.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: WJ4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WJ4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€65.00
€71.76
+10.4%
9.7%€84.98€66.09n/a5
Nov ’25€58.50
€69.87
+19.4%
9.7%€82.75€64.36n/a5
Oct ’25€56.00
€69.09
+23.4%
9.6%€81.17€63.13n/a5
Sep ’25€54.50
€70.27
+28.9%
10.5%€83.96€63.88n/a5
Aug ’25€59.50
€72.47
+21.8%
10.8%€84.33€64.87n/a5
Jul ’25€68.50
€69.29
+1.2%
10.3%€84.26€62.96n/a6
Jun ’25€63.00
€69.29
+10.0%
10.3%€84.26€62.96n/a6
May ’25€63.50
€67.60
+6.5%
11.7%€81.88€58.35n/a6
Apr ’25€56.05
€64.35
+14.8%
14.2%€82.21€55.42n/a6
Mar ’25€52.95
€64.29
+21.4%
15.1%€83.25€55.50n/a6
Feb ’25€59.15
€64.39
+8.9%
19.1%€85.55€46.00n/a6
Jan ’25€55.10
€55.52
+0.8%
9.7%€61.59€45.96n/a5
Dec ’24€53.80
€54.09
+0.5%
13.3%€62.48€44.76n/a5
Nov ’24€46.36
€51.44
+10.9%
18.5%€63.35€39.71€58.505
Oct ’24€48.36
€47.98
-0.8%
18.8%€63.78€39.98€56.005
Sep ’24€38.08
€41.34
+8.5%
11.1%€49.98€35.44€54.506
Aug ’24€40.48
€40.83
+0.9%
18.0%€53.43€29.48€59.506
Jul ’24€35.48
€40.15
+13.2%
18.4%€54.17€29.89€68.506
Jun ’24€30.78
€39.79
+29.3%
17.8%€52.66€29.05€63.006
May ’24€30.92
€42.21
+36.5%
11.6%€51.99€36.86€63.506
Apr ’24€33.60
€42.21
+25.6%
11.6%€51.99€36.86€56.056
Mar ’24€37.45
€42.21
+12.7%
11.6%€51.99€36.86€52.956
Feb ’24€34.42
€41.08
+19.3%
15.1%€50.96€32.43€59.156
Jan ’24€31.76
€41.54
+30.8%
12.6%€47.75€33.43€55.106
Dec ’23€34.96
€42.69
+22.1%
12.7%€49.64€34.74€53.806
Nov ’23€37.09
€41.63
+12.2%
19.2%€51.18€30.71€46.366

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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