Ternium S.A.

DB:T5Z Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.7b

Ternium Valuation

Is T5Z undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of T5Z when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€402.28
Fair Value
92.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: T5Z (€29.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€402.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: T5Z is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for T5Z?

Key metric: As T5Z is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for T5Z. This is calculated by dividing T5Z's market cap by their current earnings.
What is T5Z's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio74.2x
EarningsUS$79.35m
Market CapUS$5.96b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does T5Z's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for T5Z vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.9x
EIS Eisen- und Hüttenwerke
19.5xn/a€213.0m
NDA Aurubis
8x-3.1%€3.3b
FPE3 Fuchs
19.3x8.6%€5.0b
EVK Evonik Industries
36.9x33.0%€8.5b
T5Z Ternium
74.2x49.4%€6.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: T5Z is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.2x) compared to the peer average (20.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does T5Z's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies14PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: T5Z is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.2x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (12.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is T5Z's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

T5Z PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio74.2x
Fair PE Ratio39.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: T5Z is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (74.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (39.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst T5Z forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€29.20
€41.13
+40.9%
14.0%€50.81€31.63n/a11
Jan ’26€27.80
€41.97
+51.0%
10.4%€50.24€36.02n/a11
Dec ’25€31.20
€43.60
+39.8%
11.0%€50.59€36.27n/a11
Nov ’25€31.40
€42.99
+36.9%
9.5%€48.91€36.91n/a11
Oct ’25€33.00
€42.30
+28.2%
10.6%€49.49€36.00n/a11
Sep ’25€30.60
€43.27
+41.4%
10.3%€51.28€35.99n/a11
Aug ’25€32.00
€44.73
+39.8%
10.2%€52.82€37.07n/a11
Jul ’25€34.80
€46.74
+34.3%
8.2%€52.25€37.32n/a11
Jun ’25€39.20
€45.78
+16.8%
8.4%€51.56€36.83n/a11
May ’25€40.60
€46.58
+14.7%
7.8%€50.59€37.47n/a11
Apr ’25€38.60
€44.57
+15.5%
7.0%€48.53€36.62n/a11
Mar ’25€37.40
€44.70
+19.5%
6.8%€48.98€36.97n/a11
Feb ’25€35.80
€45.51
+27.1%
4.5%€48.82€41.45€29.2010
Jan ’25€38.40
€44.33
+15.4%
4.7%€48.17€40.90€27.8011
Dec ’24€36.20
€44.14
+21.9%
5.3%€48.70€40.43€31.2011
Nov ’24€34.80
€45.48
+30.7%
5.5%€49.70€41.26€31.4011
Oct ’24€37.60
€46.09
+22.6%
6.6%€50.04€41.54€33.0011
Sep ’24€38.60
€44.88
+16.3%
7.1%€49.04€38.86€30.6012
Aug ’24€40.40
€44.00
+8.9%
6.3%€47.95€38.00€32.0012
Jul ’24€36.40
€45.50
+25.0%
9.3%€55.90€38.49€34.8013
Jun ’24€34.80
€45.76
+31.5%
9.6%€56.27€38.75€39.2013
May ’24€39.40
€45.11
+14.5%
9.6%€55.34€38.10€40.6013
Apr ’24€37.80
€44.44
+17.6%
12.1%€56.52€32.43€38.6013
Mar ’24€40.20
€42.68
+6.2%
16.7%€57.50€32.05€37.4013
Feb ’24€37.00
€40.02
+8.2%
16.8%€55.53€30.95€35.8013
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
€41.76
Fair Value
30.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/31 11:01
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ternium S.A. is covered by 23 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Christian ReosAllaria Ledesma & Cia Sociedad de Bolsa S.A.
Leonardo CorreaBarclays
Alessandro AbateBerenberg