Lynas Rare Earths Limited

DB:LYI Stock Report

Market Cap: €11.2b

Lynas Rare Earths Valuation

Is LYI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Future Cash Flow Value

What is the Fair Price of LYI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: LYI (€11.2) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value (€13.21)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: LYI is trading below future cash flow value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for LYI?

Key metric: As LYI is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for LYI. This is calculated by dividing LYI's market cap by their current revenue.
What is LYI's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio26x
SalesAU$715.89m
Market CapAU$18.64b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does LYI's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for LYI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1x
TKA thyssenkrupp
0.2x1.97%€6.3b
NDA Aurubis
0.4x5.90%€7.8b
1COV Covestro
1x3.62%€12.4b
SY1 Symrise
2.4x4.38%€12.0b
LYI Lynas Rare Earths
26x29.14%€18.6b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: LYI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (26x) compared to the peer average (1x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does LYI's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

70 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
LYI 26.0xIndustry Avg. 1.1xNo. of Companies70PS0246810+
70 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: LYI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (26x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (1.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is LYI's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

LYI PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio26x
Fair PS Ratio2.5x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: LYI is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (26x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst LYI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€11.20
€12.02
+7.34%
25.06%€15.38€5.73n/a14
Jun ’27€11.65
€12.24
+5.10%
25.04%€15.72€5.86n/a14
May ’27€12.09
€12.21
+1.00%
25.04%€15.68€5.84n/a14
Apr ’27€11.88
€11.59
-2.41%
24.63%€15.54€5.68n/a15
Mar ’27€10.96
€9.83
-10.31%
26.96%€15.35€4.21n/a15
Feb ’27€8.50
€9.34
+9.89%
31.89%€17.36€4.12n/a15
Jan ’27€7.19
€8.83
+22.74%
34.15%€16.65€3.95n/a15
Dec ’26€8.25
€9.23
+11.89%
30.23%€16.61€5.35n/a14
Nov ’26€8.72
€9.05
+3.81%
31.22%€16.75€5.39n/a14
Oct ’26€9.50
€7.48
-21.33%
24.63%€10.65€5.02n/a14
Sep ’26€7.88
€7.02
-10.92%
24.47%€9.79€4.28n/a13
Aug ’26€6.09
€5.69
-6.63%
21.06%€7.39€3.07n/a14
Jul ’26€4.64
€4.55
-1.87%
21.25%€5.86€2.96n/a14
Jun ’26€4.53
€4.70
+3.87%
18.71%€5.91€3.01€11.6515
May ’26€4.87
€4.44
-8.77%
17.28%€5.33€2.97€12.0915
Apr ’26€4.02
€4.35
+8.13%
17.13%€5.54€2.92€11.8815
Mar ’26€4.03
€4.44
+10.18%
17.04%€5.70€3.00€10.9615
Feb ’26€3.83
€4.45
+16.23%
16.42%€5.72€3.07€8.5015
Jan ’26€3.85
€4.53
+17.60%
17.75%€5.69€3.00€7.1915
Dec ’25€4.19
€4.66
+11.12%
17.99%€5.86€3.08€8.2515
Nov ’25€4.67
€4.67
+0.097%
21.90%€7.27€3.03€8.7215
Oct ’25€4.83
€4.69
-2.84%
22.96%€7.47€3.11€9.5015
Sep ’25€4.30
€4.58
+6.44%
22.11%€7.37€3.04€7.8816
Aug ’25€3.76
€4.30
+14.61%
23.94%€7.29€2.88€6.0916
Jul ’25€3.89
€4.50
+15.69%
22.55%€7.45€3.01€4.6416
Jun ’25€4.03
€4.45
+10.52%
21.73%€7.35€3.06€4.5316
€12.05
Fair Value
7.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
14
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/06/29 00:22
End of Day Share Price 2026/06/29 00:00
Earnings2025/12/31
Annual Earnings2025/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Lynas Rare Earths Limited is covered by 32 analysts. 13 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Daniel MorganBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Mollie UrquhartBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited