Holmen AB (publ)

DB:HL9C Stock Report

Market Cap: €5.5b

Holmen Valuation

Is HL9C undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HL9C when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HL9C (€35.24) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€40.46)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HL9C is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HL9C?

Key metric: As HL9C is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HL9C. This is calculated by dividing HL9C's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HL9C's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.5x
EarningsSEK 2.84b
Market CapSEK 63.85b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HL9C's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HL9C vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.7x
FPE3 Fuchs
18.7x8.7%€4.9b
EVK Evonik Industries
35.2x33.1%€8.1b
NDA Aurubis
8.7x-6.2%€3.3b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.3x37.0%€3.5b
HL9C Holmen
22.5x10.0%€63.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HL9C is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the peer average (22.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HL9C's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Forestry Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HL9C 22.5xIndustry Avg. 10.4xNo. of Companies7PE0816243240+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HL9C is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the European Forestry industry average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HL9C's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HL9C PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.5x
Fair PE Ratio14.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HL9C is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HL9C forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€35.24
€37.81
+7.3%
5.9%€41.31€33.85n/a9
Nov ’25€36.16
€37.73
+4.3%
5.0%€41.08€35.38n/a8
Oct ’25€38.76
€38.04
-1.9%
6.1%€41.62€34.10n/a8
Sep ’25€36.56
€37.93
+3.7%
6.2%€41.63€34.10n/a8
Aug ’25€36.30
€36.44
+0.4%
5.1%€39.15€34.04n/a6
Jul ’25€37.20
€38.30
+3.0%
5.2%€40.46€35.57n/a6
Jun ’25€38.04
€37.08
-2.5%
5.4%€38.82€33.53n/a5
May ’25€36.18
€37.08
+2.5%
5.4%€38.82€33.53n/a5
Apr ’25€38.87
€36.83
-5.2%
7.1%€39.98€32.87n/a5
Mar ’25€37.20
€36.04
-3.1%
7.3%€39.73€32.66n/a4
Feb ’25€36.48
€36.52
+0.1%
6.9%€39.84€32.76n/a4
Jan ’25€38.96
€37.21
-4.5%
9.0%€41.77€32.88n/a4
Dec ’24€38.68
€37.59
-2.8%
12.6%€45.16€32.66n/a4
Nov ’24€35.72
€36.93
+3.4%
12.8%€44.77€32.37€36.164
Oct ’24€36.41
€36.06
-0.9%
12.5%€43.61€31.87€38.764
Sep ’24€34.92
€35.84
+2.6%
11.3%€43.54€31.82€36.565
Aug ’24€35.02
€38.53
+10.0%
10.2%€45.17€33.44€36.305
Jul ’24€32.57
€38.37
+17.8%
9.5%€44.54€32.98€37.206
Jun ’24€35.55
€39.65
+11.5%
9.6%€45.85€33.95€38.046
May ’24€32.89
€40.31
+22.6%
7.6%€45.93€37.10€36.186
Apr ’24€35.17
€41.77
+18.8%
8.6%€46.74€37.75€38.876
Mar ’24€38.23
€41.77
+9.3%
8.6%€46.74€37.75€37.206
Feb ’24€38.23
€39.87
+4.3%
11.5%€45.74€33.42€36.486
Jan ’24€37.35
€40.99
+9.7%
11.1%€47.54€34.74€38.966
Dec ’23€39.53
€40.99
+3.7%
11.1%€47.54€34.74€38.686
Nov ’23€36.86
€40.87
+10.9%
12.2%€47.65€34.82€35.725

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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