Gerdau Valuation

Is GDUB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GDUB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GDUB (€3.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€4.1)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GDUB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GDUB?

Key metric: As GDUB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GDUB. This is calculated by dividing GDUB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GDUB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.6x
EarningsR$4.83b
Market CapR$40.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GDUB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GDUB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.3x
EIS Eisen- und Hüttenwerke
18.5xn/a€202.4m
NDA Aurubis
8.7x-6.2%€3.3b
EVK Evonik Industries
35.2x33.1%€8.1b
FPE3 Fuchs
18.7x8.7%€4.9b
GDUB Gerdau
8.6x2.2%€40.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GDUB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (20.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GDUB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GDUB 8.6xIndustry Avg. 11.1xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GDUB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (11.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GDUB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GDUB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.6x
Fair PE Ratio17.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GDUB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GDUB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.20
€4.05
+26.6%
7.0%€4.73€3.62n/a14
Nov ’25€2.90
€3.95
+36.3%
5.6%€4.40€3.62n/a14
Oct ’25€3.10
€4.17
+34.5%
5.4%€4.63€3.80n/a14
Sep ’25€3.10
€4.05
+30.6%
5.5%€4.53€3.72n/a14
Aug ’25€3.00
€3.98
+32.5%
5.2%€4.36€3.57n/a15
Jul ’25€3.02
€4.17
+37.9%
5.1%€4.63€3.79n/a15
Jun ’25€3.32
€4.36
+31.4%
6.8%€5.21€3.95n/a14
May ’25€3.38
€4.30
+27.4%
10.3%€5.27€3.61n/a14
Apr ’25€3.32
€4.41
+32.9%
14.1%€6.06€3.68n/a15
Mar ’25€3.38
€4.41
+30.2%
15.0%€6.09€3.55n/a15
Feb ’25€3.20
€4.59
+43.5%
15.6%€6.17€3.60n/a15
Jan ’25€3.63
€4.75
+30.7%
12.9%€6.13€3.88n/a14
Dec ’24€3.32
€4.93
+48.7%
12.8%€6.15€3.89n/a14
Nov ’24€3.33
€4.85
+45.6%
12.4%€6.15€3.89€2.9014
Oct ’24€3.70
€4.99
+34.9%
11.6%€6.19€4.05€3.1014
Sep ’24€3.85
€5.18
+34.6%
10.3%€6.19€4.07€3.1016
Aug ’24€4.58
€5.41
+18.0%
10.6%€6.35€4.44€3.0016
Jul ’24€3.88
€5.41
+39.2%
10.6%€6.38€4.47€3.0216
Jun ’24€3.85
€5.37
+39.4%
10.7%€6.18€4.32€3.3216
May ’24€3.60
€5.25
+45.8%
11.9%€6.68€4.20€3.3817
Apr ’24€3.97
€5.10
+28.6%
10.8%€6.16€4.15€3.3217
Mar ’24€4.37
€5.20
+19.2%
10.2%€6.24€4.20€3.3816
Feb ’24€4.88
€5.41
+10.9%
8.5%€6.36€4.29€3.2016
Jan ’24€4.05
€5.27
+30.2%
7.6%€5.79€4.34€3.6315
Dec ’23€4.48
€5.16
+15.0%
7.9%€5.73€4.29€3.3215
Nov ’23€3.87
€5.28
+36.4%
10.5%€6.44€4.19€3.3315

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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