Century Aluminum Company

DB:EY3 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.0b

Century Aluminum Valuation

Is EY3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EY3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EY3 (€22.1) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€107.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EY3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EY3?

Key metric: As EY3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EY3. This is calculated by dividing EY3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EY3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio7x
EarningsUS$306.10m
Market CapUS$2.14b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EY3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EY3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average31.7x
NDA Aurubis
8.7x-6.2%€3.3b
SDF K+S
79.2x61.1%€2.0b
WCH Wacker Chemie
28.3x37.0%€3.5b
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
10.6x3.5%€700.4m
EY3 Century Aluminum
7x-7.4%€2.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EY3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the peer average (31.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EY3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

14 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EY3 7.0xIndustry Avg. 11.1xNo. of Companies14PE0816243240+
14 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EY3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EY3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EY3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio7x
Fair PE Ratio13.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EY3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EY3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€22.10
€19.22
-13.0%
14.3%€21.97€16.48n/a2
Nov ’25€16.08
€17.60
+9.5%
15.8%€20.38€14.82n/a2
Oct ’25€14.42
€17.00
+17.9%
15.8%€19.69€14.32n/a2
Sep ’25€12.98
€16.82
+29.6%
18.9%€20.01€13.64n/a2
Aug ’25€13.84
€18.81
+36.0%
17.1%€22.02€15.60n/a2
Jul ’25€15.45
€16.82
+8.9%
5.6%€17.75€15.88n/a2
Jun ’25€17.58
€16.31
-7.2%
8.6%€17.71€14.92n/a2
May ’25€16.63
€13.56
-18.4%
10.3%€14.96€12.16n/a2
Apr ’25€13.53
€11.55
-14.6%
4.0%€12.01€11.09n/a2
Mar ’25€9.61
€11.55
+20.2%
4.0%€12.01€11.09n/a2
Feb ’25€10.25
€11.90
+16.1%
7.7%€12.81€10.98n/a2
Jan ’25€11.35
€10.02
-11.7%
9.1%€10.93€9.11n/a2
Dec ’24€7.14
€6.88
-3.6%
17.0%€8.44€5.63n/a3
Nov ’24€6.20
€7.30
+17.7%
16.3%€8.57€5.71€16.083
Oct ’24€6.20
€7.30
+17.7%
16.3%€8.57€5.71€14.423
Sep ’24€6.80
€7.33
+7.8%
17.7%€8.25€5.50€12.983
Aug ’24€8.37
€7.54
-10.0%
20.4%€9.05€5.43€13.843
Jul ’24€8.01
€9.66
+20.7%
14.3%€11.04€8.28€15.452
Jun ’24€7.27
€10.15
+39.5%
9.1%€11.07€9.23€17.582
May ’24€7.55
€10.15
+34.5%
9.1%€11.07€9.23€16.632
Apr ’24€8.87
€10.15
+14.4%
9.1%€11.07€9.23€13.532
Mar ’24€11.40
€10.90
-4.4%
4.3%€11.37€10.43€9.612
Feb ’24€9.76
€9.57
-1.9%
16.4%€11.12€7.41€10.253
Jan ’24€7.69
€7.84
+2.0%
34.4%€11.29€4.71€11.353
Dec ’23€8.56
€7.94
-7.2%
36.8%€11.91€4.96€7.143
Nov ’23€7.22
€7.69
+6.5%
43.0%€12.04€4.01€6.203

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

Arkema

€5.7b

Manufactures and sells specialty chemicals and advanced materials worldwide.

V1S

€74.85

7D

0.4%

1Y

-19.9%

Minerals Technologies

US$2.6b

Develops, produces, and markets various mineral, mineral-based, and related systems and services.

MNK

US$74.50

7D

1.4%

1Y

33.0%

Mitsubishi Chemical Group

JP¥1.1t

Provides performance products, chemicals, industrial gases, health care products, and other products in Japan and internationally.

M3C

JP¥4.77

7D

-4.3%

1Y

-20.5%