CF Industries Holdings Valuation
Is C4F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of C4F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: C4F (€74.94) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€53.02)
Significantly Below Fair Value: C4F is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for C4F?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
| What is C4F's n/a Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| n/a | 0x |
| n/a | n/a |
| Market Cap | US$14.82b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 2.8x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 6x |
| PEG Ratio | -0.7x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does C4F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 20.5x | ||
SDF K+S | 12x | -19.5% | €2.5b |
SY1 Symrise | 41.3x | 15.6% | €14.1b |
FPE3 Fuchs | 20.2x | 9.0% | €5.2b |
HEI Heidelberg Materials | 8.5x | 4.3% | €17.2b |
C4F CF Industries Holdings | 9.7x | -13.4% | €14.8b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: C4F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (20.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does C4F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Chemicals Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: C4F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the European Chemicals industry average (18.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is C4F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 9.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 11.6x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: C4F is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.6x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | €74.94 | €79.88 +6.6% | 7.9% | €93.68 | €64.64 | n/a | 22 |
| Apr ’25 | €76.64 | €79.62 +3.9% | 9.2% | €92.52 | €62.91 | n/a | 21 |
| Mar ’25 | €75.84 | €79.62 +5.0% | 9.2% | €92.52 | €62.91 | n/a | 21 |
| Feb ’25 | €70.36 | €80.06 +13.8% | 10.0% | €92.55 | €62.93 | n/a | 20 |
| Jan ’25 | €71.48 | €81.07 +13.4% | 11.4% | €96.18 | €62.29 | n/a | 20 |
| Dec ’24 | €69.92 | €80.79 +15.5% | 11.0% | €95.58 | €61.90 | n/a | 20 |
| Nov ’24 | €74.48 | €84.51 +13.5% | 10.8% | €99.37 | €64.36 | n/a | 20 |
| Oct ’24 | €81.22 | €83.22 +2.5% | 10.7% | €99.35 | €63.40 | n/a | 20 |
| Sep ’24 | €73.18 | €80.14 +9.5% | 11.1% | €96.78 | €61.75 | n/a | 21 |
| Aug ’24 | €73.88 | €75.89 +2.7% | 13.9% | €94.65 | €58.59 | n/a | 21 |
| Jul ’24 | €64.92 | €78.95 +21.6% | 15.3% | €100.80 | €59.57 | n/a | 21 |
| Jun ’24 | €55.74 | €80.82 +45.0% | 15.2% | €102.23 | €60.41 | n/a | 21 |
| May ’24 | €64.46 | €85.16 +32.1% | 13.8% | €104.82 | €63.81 | €74.94 | 21 |
| Apr ’24 | €66.24 | €92.75 +40.0% | 12.9% | €116.16 | €69.14 | €76.64 | 20 |
| Mar ’24 | €79.51 | €96.01 +20.7% | 12.8% | €119.10 | €70.89 | €75.84 | 21 |
| Feb ’24 | €77.51 | €100.44 +29.6% | 14.2% | €121.48 | €69.02 | €70.36 | 21 |
| Jan ’24 | €79.52 | €111.31 +40.0% | 12.9% | €130.33 | €77.23 | €71.48 | 20 |
| Dec ’23 | €98.06 | €111.31 +13.5% | 12.9% | €130.33 | €77.23 | €69.92 | 20 |
| Nov ’23 | €108.62 | €115.62 +6.4% | 13.5% | €136.67 | €78.97 | €74.48 | 20 |
| Oct ’23 | €98.39 | €112.26 +14.1% | 13.0% | €134.71 | €79.60 | €81.22 | 20 |
| Sep ’23 | €102.48 | €109.92 +7.3% | 12.8% | €132.30 | €78.18 | €73.18 | 21 |
| Aug ’23 | €91.81 | €102.65 +11.8% | 12.9% | €128.70 | €73.13 | €73.88 | 21 |
| Jul ’23 | €81.36 | €102.84 +26.4% | 13.7% | €135.28 | €71.45 | €64.92 | 20 |
| Jun ’23 | €89.40 | €102.87 +15.1% | 13.9% | €133.28 | €70.40 | €55.74 | 20 |
| May ’23 | €91.50 | €100.06 +9.4% | 19.2% | €134.64 | €61.63 | €64.46 | 19 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.