GCC, S.A.B. de C.V.

DB:AK4 Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.7b

GCC. de Valuation

Is AK4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AK4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AK4 (€8.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€16.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AK4 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AK4?

Key metric: As AK4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AK4. This is calculated by dividing AK4's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AK4's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.6x
EarningsUS$320.97m
Market CapUS$2.80b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AK4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AK4 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.7x
STO3 Sto SE KGaA
11.1x3.5%€730.0m
HEI Heidelberg Materials
11.5x7.8%€21.4b
NDA Aurubis
8.9x-6.2%€3.3b
SDF K+S
79.2x61.1%€2.0b
AK4 GCC. de
8.6x-1.6%€56.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AK4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (27.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AK4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Basic Materials Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AK4 8.6xIndustry Avg. 12.7xNo. of Companies11PE01632486480+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AK4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the European Basic Materials industry average (12.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AK4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AK4 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.6x
Fair PE Ratio11.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AK4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AK4 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Currentn/a
€10.90
0%
10.3%€12.60€9.38n/a10
Nov ’25n/a
€10.91
0%
9.8%€12.48€9.29n/a11
Oct ’25n/a
€11.11
0%
12.0%€14.22€9.22n/a11
Sep ’25n/a
€11.11
0%
12.0%€14.22€9.22n/a11
Aug ’25n/a
€11.80
0%
9.1%€14.66€10.35n/a11
Jul ’25n/a
€12.77
0%
7.1%€14.77€11.81n/a9
Jun ’25€8.45
€12.82
+51.7%
7.2%€14.59€11.66n/a9
May ’25€8.80
€13.02
+48.0%
7.5%€14.87€11.87n/a9
Apr ’25€9.60
€12.37
+28.8%
6.3%€13.74€11.61n/a8
Mar ’25€9.45
€12.49
+32.2%
6.4%€13.88€11.73n/a8
Feb ’25€10.00
€12.22
+22.2%
6.8%€13.46€10.63n/a8
Jan ’25€9.35
€10.80
+15.5%
9.4%€12.84€9.39n/a9
Dec ’24€8.90
€10.63
+19.5%
10.7%€13.08€8.98n/a9
Nov ’24€8.05
€10.63
+32.1%
10.7%€13.08€8.98n/a9
Oct ’24€8.15
€10.97
+34.6%
13.8%€14.04€8.88n/a10
Sep ’24€8.45
€10.88
+28.8%
13.7%€13.83€8.75n/a10
Aug ’24€8.65
€10.43
+20.6%
15.3%€13.61€8.61n/a10
Jul ’24€7.85
€9.84
+25.4%
13.2%€12.60€8.51n/a10
Jun ’24€7.05
€9.83
+39.5%
13.8%€12.65€8.09€8.4510
May ’24€6.95
€9.62
+38.4%
12.7%€12.53€8.02€8.8010
Apr ’24€7.05
€9.52
+35.2%
14.6%€12.39€7.39€9.609
Mar ’24€7.26
€9.35
+28.7%
17.8%€12.59€6.39€9.4510
Feb ’24€7.13
€8.83
+23.8%
19.0%€12.15€6.17€10.0010
Jan ’24€6.10
€8.58
+40.6%
13.8%€10.07€6.44€9.3511
Dec ’23€6.69
€8.65
+29.2%
13.5%€10.19€6.51€8.9011
Nov ’23€6.14
€8.85
+44.1%
13.2%€10.52€6.72€8.0511

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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