Alcoa Corporation

DB:185 Stock Report

Market Cap: €9.5b

Alcoa Valuation

Is 185 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 185 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 185 (€36.18) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€7.7)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 185 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 185?

Key metric: As 185 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 185. This is calculated by dividing 185's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 185's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.9x
SalesUS$11.00b
Market CapUS$9.76b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 185's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 185 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.4x
1COV Covestro
0.7x4.1%€10.5b
EVK Evonik Industries
0.5x2.4%€7.8b
NDA Aurubis
0.2x3.7%€3.3b
TKA thyssenkrupp
0.07x1.1%€2.5b
185 Alcoa
0.9x3.0%€9.8b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 185 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the peer average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 185's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

33 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
185 0.9xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies33PS00.81.62.43.24+
33 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 185 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 185's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

185 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.9x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 185 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 185 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€36.18
€46.78
+29.3%
11.9%€55.59€36.42n/a13
Dec ’25€43.22
€45.19
+4.6%
12.1%€55.26€36.68n/a13
Nov ’25€37.14
€43.51
+17.2%
10.8%€50.95€35.67n/a13
Oct ’25€34.74
€40.17
+15.6%
14.4%€49.69€32.52n/a12
Sep ’25€29.12
€40.77
+40.0%
13.7%€50.32€33.85n/a10
Aug ’25€30.22
€40.85
+35.2%
15.0%€50.88€31.45n/a10
Jul ’25€36.66
€38.16
+4.1%
21.5%€48.69€23.41n/a11
Jun ’25€40.64
€35.67
-12.2%
20.8%€48.15€23.15n/a11
May ’25€34.81
€33.64
-3.4%
16.5%€44.77€23.32n/a12
Apr ’25€30.78
€28.27
-8.2%
20.9%€41.57€20.32n/a12
Mar ’25€25.63
€28.14
+9.8%
20.8%€41.63€20.35n/a12
Feb ’25€27.42
€28.78
+5.0%
17.8%€41.31€21.11n/a13
Jan ’25€31.02
€27.90
-10.1%
18.4%€40.75€20.83€35.6812
Dec ’24€25.68
€28.19
+9.8%
20.8%€41.12€21.02€43.2211
Nov ’24€24.06
€28.87
+20.0%
21.6%€42.48€21.71€37.1411
Oct ’24€26.41
€34.75
+31.6%
24.3%€51.60€23.45€34.7410
Sep ’24€27.52
€34.80
+26.5%
20.3%€50.27€22.85€29.1212
Aug ’24€32.64
€35.14
+7.7%
20.0%€49.89€22.68€30.2212
Jul ’24€30.70
€41.99
+36.8%
18.3%€55.21€30.36€36.6612
Jun ’24€30.14
€46.44
+54.1%
16.4%€60.82€34.62€40.6412
May ’24€32.59
€45.94
+41.0%
14.3%€59.25€36.46€34.8110
Apr ’24€37.89
€50.00
+32.0%
14.1%€59.96€40.59€30.7810
Mar ’24€49.22
€51.88
+5.4%
13.0%€61.31€39.61€25.6310
Feb ’24€47.76
€49.16
+2.9%
11.7%€59.17€38.23€27.4210
Jan ’24€43.36
€45.95
+6.0%
11.7%€53.23€38.29€31.0210

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 05:48
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Alcoa Corporation is covered by 26 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Ishan MajumdarBaptista Research
Paretosh MisraBerenberg