Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Covestro AG (ETR:1COV)?

Covestro AG (ETR:1COV) saw a decent share price growth in the teens level on the XTRA over the last few months. As a large-cap stock with high coverage by analysts, you could assume any recent changes in the company’s outlook is already priced into the stock. However, what if the stock is still a bargain? Let’s examine Covestro’s valuation and outlook in more detail to determine if there’s still a bargain opportunity.

Check out our latest analysis for Covestro

Is Covestro still cheap?

Covestro is currently expensive based on my price multiple model, where I look at the company's price-to-earnings ratio in comparison to the industry average. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 47.16x is currently well-above the industry average of 26.56x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. But, is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Given that Covestro’s share is fairly volatile (i.e. its price movements are magnified relative to the rest of the market) this could mean the price can sink lower, giving us another chance to buy in the future. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for share price volatility.

Can we expect growth from Covestro?

Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Covestro's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.

What this means for you:

Are you a shareholder? 1COV’s optimistic future growth appears to have been factored into the current share price, with shares trading above industry price multiples. However, this brings up another question – is now the right time to sell? If you believe 1COV should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.

Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on 1COV for a while, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the positive outlook is encouraging for 1COV, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.

In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. For example - Covestro has 5 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

If you are no longer interested in Covestro, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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