Alcoa Corporation

XTRA:185 Stock Report

Market Cap: €11.3b

Alcoa Valuation

Is 185 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 185 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 185 (€43.95) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€10.14)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 185 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 185?

Key metric: As 185 is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 185. This is calculated by dividing 185's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 185's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio1.1x
SalesUS$11.00b
Market CapUS$11.75b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 185's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 185 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
1COV Covestro
0.8x4.3%€10.8b
EVK Evonik Industries
0.5x2.2%€8.2b
NDA Aurubis
0.2x4.2%€3.4b
2NF Syensqo
1.1x4.2%€7.5b
185 Alcoa
1.1x1.0%€11.7b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 185 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 185's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

35 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
185 1.1xIndustry Avg. 0.7xNo. of Companies35PS00.81.62.43.24+
35 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 185 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 185's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

185 PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 185 is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 185 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€43.95
€44.33
+0.9%
10.8%€51.91€36.34n/a13
Nov ’25€37.82
€43.44
+14.9%
10.8%€50.86€35.60n/a13
Oct ’25€35.40
€40.17
+13.5%
14.4%€49.69€32.52n/a12
Sep ’25€28.96
€40.77
+40.8%
13.7%€50.32€33.85n/a10
Aug ’25€29.44
€40.85
+38.8%
15.0%€50.88€31.45n/a10
Jul ’25€37.56
€38.16
+1.6%
21.5%€48.69€23.41n/a11
Jun ’25€40.08
€35.67
-11.0%
20.8%€48.15€23.15n/a11
May ’25€33.30
€33.64
+1.0%
16.5%€44.77€23.32n/a12
Apr ’25€31.08
€28.27
-9.0%
20.9%€41.57€20.32n/a12
Mar ’25€25.51
€28.14
+10.3%
20.8%€41.63€20.35n/a12
Feb ’25€26.98
€28.78
+6.7%
17.8%€41.31€21.11n/a13
Jan ’25€31.24
€27.90
-10.7%
18.4%€40.75€20.83n/a12
Dec ’24€25.38
€28.19
+11.1%
20.8%€41.12€21.02n/a11
Nov ’24€23.66
€28.87
+22.0%
21.6%€42.48€21.71€37.8211
Oct ’24€27.94
€34.75
+24.4%
24.3%€51.60€23.45€35.4010
Sep ’24€28.75
€34.80
+21.0%
20.3%€50.27€22.85€28.9612
Aug ’24€32.27
€35.14
+8.9%
20.0%€49.89€22.68€29.4412
Jul ’24€30.61
€41.99
+37.2%
18.3%€55.21€30.36€37.5612
Jun ’24€30.40
€46.44
+52.8%
16.4%€60.82€34.62€40.0812
May ’24€33.36
€45.94
+37.7%
14.3%€59.25€36.46€33.3010
Apr ’24€39.29
€50.00
+27.3%
14.1%€59.96€40.59€31.0810
Mar ’24€48.60
€51.88
+6.7%
13.0%€61.31€39.61€25.5110
Feb ’24€47.83
€49.16
+2.8%
11.7%€59.17€38.23€26.9810
Jan ’24€43.32
€45.95
+6.1%
11.7%€53.23€38.29€31.2410
Dec ’23€47.58
€44.92
-5.6%
16.3%€57.59€33.59€25.3810
Nov ’23€41.53
€45.86
+10.4%
15.3%€60.21€35.12€23.6610

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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