Alcoa Corporation

XTRA:185 Stock Report

Market Cap: €13.7b

Alcoa Valuation

Is 185 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 185 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

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Below Fair Value: 185 (€54.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€192.25)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 185 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 185?

Key metric: As 185 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 185. This is calculated by dividing 185's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 185's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.1x
EarningsUS$1.13b
Market CapUS$15.96b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 185's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 185 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.3x
NDA Aurubis
10.6x-9.84%€5.7b
TKA thyssenkrupp
13.8x20.62%€6.4b
SY1 Symrise
19.3x7.22%€9.8b
EVK Evonik Industries
65.6x29.81%€6.2b
185 Alcoa
14.1x-4.42%€16.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 185 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the peer average (27.3x).

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio

Historical Price to Earnings Ratio compares a stock's price to its earnings over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 185's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Metals and Mining Industry?

18 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
185 14.1xIndustry Avg. 17.8xNo. of Companies18PE01020304050+
18 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 185 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the European Metals and Mining industry average (17.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 185's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

185 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.1x
Fair PE Ratio17.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 185 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 185 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€54.08
€40.62
-24.90%
14.57%€49.77€28.32n/a12
Jan ’27€46.26
€39.79
-13.98%
14.65%€49.20€27.99n/a12
Dec ’26€35.93
€34.56
-3.80%
8.05%€38.06€28.54n/a12
Nov ’26€31.94
€34.37
+7.64%
10.97%€39.04€24.29n/a12
Oct ’26€28.72
€30.66
+6.77%
15.21%€38.33€23.00n/a11
Sep ’26€27.47
€28.82
+4.92%
14.84%€36.08€23.19n/a11
Aug ’26€25.77
€29.04
+12.68%
14.84%€36.36€23.37n/a11
Jul ’26€25.68
€31.44
+22.44%
20.70%€44.11€22.05n/a13
Jun ’26€23.83
€32.46
+36.26%
23.24%€46.10€22.16n/a13
May ’26€21.56
€32.18
+49.30%
23.24%€45.70€21.97n/a13
Apr ’26€27.70
€43.53
+57.16%
10.85%€53.76€37.08n/a13
Mar ’26€31.93
€45.68
+43.07%
11.13%€55.15€38.04n/a13
Feb ’26€34.71
€46.14
+32.93%
11.13%€55.70€38.42n/a13
Jan ’26€36.06
€46.78
+29.76%
11.90%€55.59€36.42€46.2613
Dec ’25€44.02
€44.89
+2.00%
12.13%€54.90€36.44€35.9313
Nov ’25€37.82
€43.44
+14.85%
10.83%€50.86€35.60€31.9413
Oct ’25€35.40
€40.17
+13.48%
14.36%€49.69€32.52€28.7212
Sep ’25€28.96
€39.84
+37.60%
13.71%€49.18€33.08€27.4710
Aug ’25€29.44
€40.85
+38.75%
15.02%€50.88€31.45€25.7710
Jul ’25€37.56
€38.08
+1.38%
21.47%€48.59€23.36€25.6811
Jun ’25€40.08
€35.67
-11.00%
20.79%€48.15€23.15€23.8311
May ’25€33.30
€33.79
+1.47%
16.49%€44.97€23.42€21.5612
Apr ’25€31.08
€28.49
-8.33%
20.94%€41.90€20.48€27.7012
Mar ’25€25.51
€28.14
+10.29%
20.83%€41.63€20.35€31.9312
Feb ’25€26.98
€28.85
+6.92%
17.78%€41.40€21.16€34.7113
Jan ’25€31.24
€28.20
-9.73%
19.49%€40.75€20.83€36.0612
€41.9
Fair Value
29.1% overvalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/01/09 19:52
End of Day Share Price 2026/01/09 00:00
Earnings2025/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alcoa Corporation is covered by 29 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
David ColemanArgus Research Company
Dale KoendersBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Paretosh MisraBerenberg