DB:PGV

Stock Analysis Report

NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION
Header cover image

Executive Summary

The Progressive Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services primarily in the United States.


Snowflake Analysis

Outstanding track record with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Progressive's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: PGV has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0.7%

PGV

-1.6%

DE Insurance

0.7%

DE Market


1 Year Return

7.0%

PGV

-6.4%

DE Insurance

8.8%

DE Market

Return vs Industry: PGV exceeded the German Insurance industry which returned -6.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: PGV underperformed the German Market which returned 8.1% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

PGVIndustryMarket
7 Day0.7%-1.6%0.7%
30 Day12.4%-2.6%0.1%
90 Day14.9%15.3%12.6%
1 Year10.9%7.0%-1.3%-6.4%11.2%8.8%
3 Year112.5%92.6%23.3%7.3%5.4%-3.0%
5 Year219.8%176.4%55.8%23.6%15.9%0.3%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Progressive's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

No news available

Valuation

Is Progressive undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

33.6%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: PGV (€77) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€115.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: PGV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: PGV is poor value based on its PE Ratio (12.1x) compared to the DE Insurance industry average (11x).

PE vs Market: PGV is good value based on its PE Ratio (12.1x) compared to the German market (21.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: PGV's earnings are forecast to decline next year, so we can't calculate its PEG ratio.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: PGV is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.3x) compared to the DE Insurance industry average (1x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Progressive forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 10 analysts?

-12.1%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: PGV's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-12.1% per year).

Earnings vs Market: PGV's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-12.1% per year).

High Growth Earnings: PGV's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: PGV's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the German market (5.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: PGV's revenue (8.2% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: PGV's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (17.5%).


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Progressive performed over the past 5 years?

29.9%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: PGV has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: PGV's current net profit margins (10.8%) are higher than last year (9.1%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: PGV's earnings have grown significantly by 29.9% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: PGV's earnings growth over the past year (35.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (29.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: PGV earnings growth over the past year (35.7%) exceeded the Insurance industry -12.4%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: PGV's Return on Equity (26.4%) is considered high.


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Progressive's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: PGV's short term assets ($16.6B) do not cover its short term liabilities ($36.7B).

Long Term Liabilities: PGV's short term assets ($16.6B) exceed its long term liabilities ($6.1B).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: PGV's debt to equity ratio (31.9%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: PGV's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 35.1% to 31.9% over the past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: PGV's debt is well covered by operating cash flow (127.2%).

Interest Coverage: PGV's interest payments on its debt are well covered by EBIT (28.6x coverage).


Balance Sheet


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Progressive current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

2.92%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: PGV's dividend (2.92%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the German market (1.23%).

High Dividend: PGV's dividend (2.92%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the German market (3.78%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: PGV's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: PGV's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (35.4%), PGV's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: PGV's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (44.6% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

4.9yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Tricia Griffith (56 yo)

4.08yrs

Tenure

US$14,041,272

Compensation

Ms. Susan Patricia Griffith, also known as Tricia, has been the Chief Executive Officer and President of Progressive Corp. since July 1, 2016. Ms. Griffith serves as Director at Federal Express Corporation ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Tricia's total compensation ($USD14.04M) is above average for companies of similar size in the German market ($USD5.24M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Tricia's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Susan Griffith
President4.08yrsUS$14.04m0.10%
$ 47.4m
John Sauerland
VP & CFO5.33yrsUS$4.57m0.075%
$ 33.8m
John Barbagallo
President of Commercial Lines5.25yrsUS$2.61m0.016%
$ 7.1m
Patrick Callahan
President of Personal Lines5.33yrsUS$3.23m0.0047%
$ 2.1m
Jonathan Bauer
Chief Investment Officer0.58yrno data0.0013%
$ 596.0k
Mariann Marshall
VP, Chief Accounting Officer & Assistant Secretary1.42yrsno data0.0025%
$ 1.1m
Steven Broz
Chief Information Officer4.5yrsno data0.0076%
$ 3.4m
Julia Hornack
Investor Relations Contact5.58yrsno datano data
Daniel Mascaro
Chief Legal Officer & Secretary3.42yrsno data0.0088%
$ 4.0m
M. Charney
Chief Marketing Officer9.75yrsUS$2.41m0.013%
$ 5.7m
Lori Niederst
Chief Human Resource Officer3.75yrsno data0.0060%
$ 2.7m
Michael Sieger
President of Claims5.58yrsno data0.010%
$ 4.7m

4.9yrs

Average Tenure

56yo

Average Age

Experienced Management: PGV's management team is considered experienced (4.9 years average tenure).


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Susan Griffith
President4.08yrsUS$14.04m0.10%
$ 47.4m
Pamela Craig
Independent Director2.25yrsUS$265.05k0.00083%
$ 374.8k
Patrick Nettles
Independent Director15.83yrsUS$300.04k0.0032%
$ 1.4m
Jeffrey Kelly
Independent Director7.83yrsUS$275.07k0.011%
$ 5.2m
Roger Farah
Independent Director12.17yrsUS$305.03k0.0020%
$ 894.0k
Charles Davis
Independent Director24.33yrsUS$290.05k0.056%
$ 25.2m
Stuart Burgdoerfer
Independent Director10.67yrsUS$275.07k0.0069%
$ 3.1m
Lawton Fitt
Independent Chairperson2.25yrsUS$470.03k0.0027%
$ 1.2m
Philip Bleser
Independent Director3yrsUS$280.06k0.00064%
$ 289.0k
Barbara Snyder
Independent Director5.83yrsUS$265.01k0.0020%
$ 903.0k
Kahina van Dyke
Independent Director2.25yrsUS$265.01k0.0016%
$ 745.0k
Jan Tighe
Independent Director1.25yrsUS$265.05k0.00037%
$ 167.1k

5.0yrs

Average Tenure

65.5yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: PGV's board of directors are considered experienced (5 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: PGV insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

The Progressive Corporation's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: The Progressive Corporation
  • Ticker: PGV
  • Exchange: DB
  • Founded: 1937
  • Industry: Property and Casualty Insurance
  • Sector: Insurance
  • Market Cap: US$53.113b
  • Listing Market Cap: US$45.151b
  • Shares outstanding: 585.40m
  • Website: https://www.progressive.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • The Progressive Corporation
  • 6300 Wilson Mills Road
  • Mayfield
  • Ohio
  • 44143
  • United States

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
PGRNYSE (New York Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesUSUSDOct 1972
PGVDB (Deutsche Boerse AG)YesCommon SharesDEEUROct 1972
PGR *BMV (Bolsa Mexicana de Valores)YesCommon SharesMXMXNOct 1972
0KOCLSE (London Stock Exchange)YesCommon SharesGBUSDOct 1972
P1GR34BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de Sao Paulo)BDR EACH 2 REPR 1 SHS UNSPONBRBRLJan 2020

Biography

The Progressive Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides personal and commercial auto insurance, residential property insurance, and other specialty property-casualty insurance and related services ...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/08/10 21:10
End of Day Share Price2020/08/10 00:00
Earnings2020/06/30
Annual Earnings2019/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.