Medibank Private Limited

DB:MPV Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.6b

Medibank Private Valuation

Is MPV undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MPV when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€4.07
Fair Value
41.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: MPV (€2.38) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€4.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MPV is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPV?

Key metric: As MPV is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for MPV. This is calculated by dividing MPV's market cap by their current earnings.
What is MPV's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio22.2x
EarningsAU$492.50m
Market CapAU$10.93b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does MPV's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for MPV vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.9x
WUW Wüstenrot & Württembergische
26.7x25.4%€1.1b
TLX Talanx
11.3x5.2%€21.4b
HNR1 Hannover Rück
13.6x6.9%€30.5b
MUV2 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft in München
12.1x3.2%€69.2b
MPV Medibank Private
22.2x7.3%€10.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MPV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the peer average (15.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does MPV's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MPV 22.2xIndustry Avg. 12.2xNo. of Companies13PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MPV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MPV's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MPV PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio22.2x
Fair PE Ratio9.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: MPV is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MPV forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.38
€2.48
+4.2%
6.2%€2.80€2.29n/a11
Feb ’26€2.36
€2.46
+4.2%
6.2%€2.78€2.27n/a11
Jan ’26€2.26
€2.45
+8.3%
6.0%€2.73€2.28n/a11
Dec ’25€2.32
€2.50
+7.9%
6.0%€2.79€2.33n/a11
Nov ’25€2.10
€2.47
+17.4%
6.0%€2.75€2.30n/a11
Oct ’25€2.18
€2.51
+15.0%
7.2%€2.83€2.15n/a12
Sep ’25€2.32
€2.44
+5.4%
7.2%€2.76€2.09n/a12
Aug ’25€2.34
€2.37
+1.1%
7.1%€2.66€2.09n/a12
Jul ’25€2.26
€2.40
+6.4%
6.8%€2.67€2.14n/a12
Jun ’25€2.26
€2.40
+6.2%
7.4%€2.70€2.12n/a13
May ’25€2.14
€2.35
+9.9%
6.9%€2.61€2.10n/a12
Apr ’25€2.24
€2.32
+3.5%
6.3%€2.53€2.08n/a12
Mar ’25€2.16
€2.34
+8.1%
7.0%€2.59€2.06n/a13
Feb ’25€2.26
€2.36
+4.4%
7.5%€2.60€2.12€2.3612
Jan ’25€2.16
€2.31
+7.1%
6.4%€2.58€2.10€2.2612
Dec ’24€2.12
€2.31
+9.1%
6.4%€2.58€2.10€2.3212
Nov ’24€2.00
€2.31
+15.6%
6.4%€2.58€2.10€2.1012
Oct ’24€2.06
€2.34
+13.5%
6.0%€2.61€2.13€2.1812
Sep ’24€2.14
€2.24
+4.6%
9.1%€2.55€1.70€2.3213
Aug ’24€2.08
€2.22
+6.7%
9.2%€2.56€1.74€2.3413
Jul ’24€2.10
€2.20
+4.7%
8.9%€2.57€1.75€2.2613
Jun ’24€2.18
€2.19
+0.4%
8.7%€2.55€1.74€2.2614
May ’24€2.10
€2.15
+2.2%
9.1%€2.56€1.74€2.1412
Apr ’24€2.04
€2.25
+10.1%
8.8%€2.67€1.82€2.2413
Mar ’24€2.08
€2.25
+8.0%
8.8%€2.67€1.82€2.1613
Feb ’24€1.87
€2.18
+16.7%
12.0%€2.93€1.92€2.2613
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts
€2.47
Fair Value
3.5% undervalued intrinsic discount
11
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/07 18:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Medibank Private Limited is covered by 22 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Andrew AdamsBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
John HesterBell Potter