Aflac Incorporated

DB:AFL Stock Report

Market Cap: €60.0b

Aflac Valuation

Is AFL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AFL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AFL (€107.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€162.27)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AFL is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AFL?

Key metric: As AFL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AFL. This is calculated by dividing AFL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AFL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.5x
EarningsUS$3.81b
Market CapUS$62.89b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AFL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AFL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average15.6x
MUV2 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft in München
11.4x2.9%€64.9b
WUW Wüstenrot & Württembergische
26.1x34.6%€1.1b
ALV Allianz
11.8x5.9%€112.0b
HNR1 Hannover Rück
13.3x5.7%€29.8b
AFL Aflac
16.6x-1.7%€62.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the peer average (15.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AFL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Insurance Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AFL 16.5xIndustry Avg. 11.9xNo. of Companies13PE0816243240+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the European Insurance industry average (11.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AFL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AFL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.5x
Fair PE Ratio9.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AFL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AFL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€107.60
€99.30
-7.7%
8.0%€118.30€85.86n/a12
Nov ’25€95.94
€94.36
-1.7%
8.8%€114.43€83.05n/a12
Oct ’25€100.20
€87.89
-12.3%
9.0%€102.89€76.05n/a13
Sep ’25€99.58
€87.13
-12.5%
9.6%€102.84€75.78n/a12
Aug ’25€88.06
€85.33
-3.1%
10.8%€105.64€75.06n/a12
Jul ’25€83.16
€80.36
-3.4%
7.6%€93.35€71.88n/a12
Jun ’25€81.14
€79.13
-2.5%
6.1%€88.18€71.47n/a12
May ’25€78.84
€79.56
+0.9%
7.8%€94.11€70.58n/a13
Apr ’25€79.00
€76.59
-3.0%
5.6%€84.90€69.21n/a13
Mar ’25€74.70
€76.59
+2.5%
5.6%€84.90€69.21n/a13
Feb ’25€75.20
€76.23
+1.4%
6.2%€84.64€69.00n/a14
Jan ’25€74.10
€73.86
-0.3%
7.9%€83.61€56.67n/a14
Dec ’24€75.80
€73.57
-2.9%
7.7%€83.00€56.25n/a14
Nov ’24€73.50
€73.01
-0.7%
8.3%€81.03€56.53€95.9414
Oct ’24€73.20
€72.22
-1.3%
9.2%€81.20€54.76€100.2014
Sep ’24€68.60
€69.85
+1.8%
9.2%€79.27€53.46€99.5814
Aug ’24€65.50
€65.23
-0.4%
7.6%€72.38€52.48€88.0614
Jul ’24€63.30
€65.32
+3.2%
7.7%€73.36€52.27€83.1613
Jun ’24€59.90
€66.22
+10.5%
7.4%€74.86€53.33€81.1413
May ’24€62.80
€64.39
+2.5%
7.1%€72.92€51.96€78.8414
Apr ’24€59.34
€66.01
+11.2%
8.2%€74.62€53.17€79.0013
Mar ’24€64.04
€67.45
+5.3%
7.8%€75.83€54.03€74.7013
Feb ’24€67.11
€64.96
-3.2%
8.2%€73.75€52.55€75.2013
Jan ’24€67.18
€65.77
-2.1%
9.4%€77.64€52.41€74.1013
Dec ’23€69.07
€65.77
-4.8%
9.4%€77.64€52.41€75.8013
Nov ’23€64.99
€64.33
-1.0%
7.9%€73.91€54.67€73.5013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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