A Fresh Look at Allianz (XTRA:ALV) Valuation After a 1% Daily Gain and 2024 Performance

Allianz (XTRA:ALV) shares edged up slightly, closing at €353 after a modest 1 day gain of 1%. Over the past month, the stock has slipped by about 2% but remains up 19% year-to-date.

See our latest analysis for Allianz.

Momentum around Allianz is holding up, with a strong year-to-date share price return and the company delivering an impressive total shareholder return of nearly 27% over the past year. Although recent short-term swings have been mild, the three- and five-year total shareholder returns above 100% highlight a longer-term growth story that is hard to ignore.

If Allianz’s steady climb has inspired you, now is the perfect moment to expand your search and discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership

However, the key question remains: with Allianz’s strong track record, are shares trading at a bargain today, or has the market already factored in all of its expected growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.8% Undervalued

With Allianz’s last close at €353, the most popular narrative estimates a fair value near €363, just above today’s price. This places the stock in modest undervalued territory, making its ongoing performance and future growth projections especially intriguing.

Strategic expansion into high-potential emerging markets (notably India and Africa) via joint ventures and partnerships is expected to unlock significant new sources of revenue growth, as rising middle classes drive demand for insurance and asset management products. Ongoing digital transformation and AI-driven operational efficiencies are set to drive sustained improvements in expense ratios and underwriting profitability. This would support higher net margins and overall earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

What does this narrative see that the market might be missing? A carefully woven projection, banking on big gains from market expansion and digital reinvention. The surprising part lies in how long-term margin changes and future profit multiples power the story. Find out the real drivers behind this valuation by reading the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of €363.11 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing currency volatility and integration risks from recent acquisitions could quickly challenge the optimistic outlook and put pressure on Allianz’s future earnings path.

Find out about the key risks to this Allianz narrative.

Another View: Multiples Tell a Different Story

While the popular narrative points to Allianz being undervalued, a look at its price-to-earnings ratio adds nuance. Allianz trades at 13.3x, which is slightly higher than the European insurance industry average of 12.7x and just above its own fair ratio of 13.1x. This suggests the market has already incorporated much of its expected gains. Is there still real upside, or should investors tread carefully?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Allianz Narrative

If you see Allianz’s story unfolding differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Allianz.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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