U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.

DB:UPH Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.4b

U.S. Physical Therapy Valuation

Is UPH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UPH (€89.5) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€164.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPH?

Key metric: As UPH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UPH. This is calculated by dividing UPH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UPH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio104.7x
EarningsUS$14.10m
Market CapUS$1.48b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UPH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UPH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average16.8x
RHK RHÖN-KLINIKUM
18.6x7.5%€836.7m
M12 M1 Kliniken
18.3x17.5%€307.1m
LIK LIMES Schlosskliniken
23.3xn/a€99.7m
JTH Gesundheitswelt Chiemgau
7xn/a€24.4m
UPH U.S. Physical Therapy
104.7x29.4%€1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (104.7x) compared to the peer average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Healthcare Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UPH 104.7xIndustry Avg. 18.7xNo. of Companies10PE01020304050+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (104.7x) compared to the European Healthcare industry average (18.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio104.7x
Fair PE Ratio28.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (104.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€89.50
€102.46
+14.5%
6.2%€111.62€95.40n/a5
Nov ’25€73.00
€95.47
+30.8%
8.7%€106.59€81.99n/a5
Oct ’25€75.50
€103.97
+37.7%
4.7%€111.62€98.41n/a5
Sep ’25€75.50
€103.97
+37.7%
4.7%€111.62€98.41n/a5
Aug ’25€89.00
€111.56
+25.3%
1.6%€113.41€108.32n/a5
Jul ’25€85.00
€111.56
+31.2%
1.6%€113.41€108.32n/a5
Jun ’25€92.00
€111.35
+21.0%
1.6%€113.20€108.12n/a5
May ’25€94.50
€108.99
+15.3%
2.4%€111.92€105.06n/a5
Apr ’25€102.00
€108.99
+6.9%
2.4%€111.92€105.06n/a5
Mar ’25€98.00
€106.77
+8.9%
7.6%€113.04€91.36n/a5
Feb ’25€85.50
€99.27
+16.1%
6.4%€109.90€90.66n/a5
Jan ’25€86.00
€97.78
+13.7%
4.1%€101.82€90.81n/a5
Dec ’24€77.50
€96.81
+24.9%
4.8%€101.76€90.76n/a5
Nov ’24€79.00
€114.03
+44.3%
6.1%€122.11€101.44€73.005
Oct ’24€89.00
€114.03
+28.1%
6.1%€122.11€101.44€75.505
Sep ’24€92.50
€120.76
+30.6%
7.7%€132.91€109.99€75.504
Aug ’24€105.00
€112.66
+7.3%
11.1%€130.34€103.37€89.003
Jul ’24€107.00
€111.46
+4.2%
3.1%€115.79€107.45€85.003
Jun ’24€95.50
€107.86
+12.9%
3.8%€113.61€104.52€92.003
May ’24€96.50
€103.70
+7.5%
3.7%€108.41€98.98€94.503
Apr ’24€87.50
€103.70
+18.5%
3.7%€108.41€98.98€102.003
Mar ’24€95.50
€103.70
+8.6%
3.7%€108.41€98.98€98.003
Feb ’24€91.00
€96.54
+6.1%
3.2%€100.94€94.34€85.503
Jan ’24€75.00
€96.54
+28.7%
3.2%€100.94€94.34€86.003
Dec ’23€82.50
€107.91
+30.8%
5.5%€116.88€102.53€77.504
Nov ’23€89.50
€106.56
+19.1%
5.5%€115.41€101.24€79.004

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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