Tiger Brands Limited

DB:UG5A Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.1b

Tiger Brands Valuation

Is UG5A undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UG5A when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UG5A (€13) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€4.13)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UG5A is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UG5A?

Key metric: As UG5A is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UG5A. This is calculated by dividing UG5A's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UG5A's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.2x
EarningsR2.82b
Market CapR40.01b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UG5A's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UG5A vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.9x
SZU Südzucker
6.7x-10.2%€2.2b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
15xn/a€598.9m
NLM FRoSTA
12.1xn/a€415.6m
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
10x-1.0%€2.0b
UG5A Tiger Brands
14.2x5.9%€40.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UG5A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the peer average (10.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UG5A's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UG5A 14.2xIndustry Avg. 13.4xNo. of Companies18PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UG5A is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UG5A's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UG5A PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.2x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UG5A is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UG5A forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€13.00
€14.34
+10.3%
2.4%€14.77€13.94n/a3
Nov ’25€12.20
€14.16
+16.1%
1.3%€14.34€13.98n/a2
Oct ’25€12.00
€11.98
-0.2%
0.4%€12.03€11.93n/a2
Sep ’25€11.80
€11.98
+1.5%
0.4%€12.03€11.93n/a2
Aug ’25€11.10
€11.21
+1.0%
9.9%€12.09€9.34n/a4
Jul ’25€10.10
€10.69
+5.9%
9.5%€11.91€9.28n/a4
Jun ’25€9.30
€10.49
+12.8%
9.0%€11.84€9.22n/a4
May ’25€9.70
€10.21
+5.3%
9.6%€11.56€8.86n/a4
Apr ’25€9.70
€9.84
+1.4%
11.8%€11.47€8.69n/a4
Mar ’25€9.50
€9.28
-2.3%
12.3%€11.26€8.53n/a4
Feb ’25€10.20
€9.11
-10.7%
8.1%€10.38€8.59n/a4
Jan ’25€9.60
€8.99
-6.4%
10.6%€10.62€7.64n/a5
Dec ’24€8.95
€8.53
-4.7%
8.3%€9.64€7.65n/a5
Nov ’24€8.65
€8.53
-1.4%
8.3%€9.64€7.65€12.205
Oct ’24€7.40
€8.15
+10.2%
10.5%€9.38€6.97€12.005
Sep ’24€7.90
€8.15
+3.2%
10.5%€9.38€6.97€11.805
Aug ’24€7.75
€8.16
+5.3%
8.5%€8.90€7.25€11.104
Jul ’24€7.90
€9.02
+14.2%
18.3%€11.25€7.09€10.105
Jun ’24€6.95
€9.51
+36.8%
16.4%€10.89€6.87€9.304
May ’24€9.50
€10.24
+7.8%
6.6%€10.98€9.17€9.704
Apr ’24€9.85
€10.24
+3.9%
6.6%€10.98€9.17€9.704
Mar ’24€11.10
€11.68
+5.2%
8.6%€12.63€10.00€9.505
Feb ’24€10.70
€11.68
+9.1%
8.6%€12.63€10.00€10.205
Jan ’24€11.20
€11.04
-1.5%
12.8%€12.57€9.02€9.605
Dec ’23€10.50
€9.65
-8.1%
14.1%€11.34€8.05€8.955
Nov ’23€10.10
€9.65
-4.4%
14.1%€11.34€8.05€8.655

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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