Australian Vintage Ltd

DB:MGE Stock Report

Market Cap: €27.6m

Australian Vintage Valuation

Is MGE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MGE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MGE (€0.08) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€1.02)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MGE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MGE?

Key metric: As MGE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MGE. This is calculated by dividing MGE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MGE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.2x
SalesAU$260.59m
Market CapAU$44.48m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MGE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MGE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.6x
BEZ Berentzen-Gruppe
0.2x4.2%€39.0m
1SK Sektkellerei J.Oppmann
1.4xn/a€5.9m
SWA Schloss Wachenheim
0.3x4.5%€118.0m
PKB Park & Bellheimer
0.4xn/a€10.8m
MGE Australian Vintage
0.2x2.0%€44.5m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MGE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MGE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.3x4.1%
MGE Australian Vintage
 0.2x2.0%US$28.92m
MGE 0.2xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies9PS00.81.62.43.24+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.1.3x11.3%
MGE Australian Vintage
 0.2x107.7%US$28.92m
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MGE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MGE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MGE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.2x
Fair PS Ratio0.08x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MGE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MGE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€0.075
€0.17
+124.5%
30.9%€0.22€0.12n/a2
Nov ’25€0.079
€0.17
+115.9%
30.9%€0.22€0.12n/a2
Oct ’25€0.089
€0.17
+86.5%
30.9%€0.22€0.12n/a2
Sep ’25€0.08
€0.17
+108.6%
30.9%€0.22€0.12n/a2
Aug ’25€0.07
€0.19
+174.9%
32.3%€0.25€0.13n/a2
Jul ’25€0.081
€0.19
+135.9%
32.3%€0.25€0.13n/a2
Jun ’25n/a
€0.33
0%
24.1%€0.41€0.25n/a2
May ’25€0.22
€0.32
+45.7%
19.3%€0.41€0.25n/a4
Apr ’25€0.23
€0.28
+24.6%
12.5%€0.33€0.25n/a3
Mar ’25€0.21
€0.29
+38.3%
15.1%€0.35€0.25n/a3
Feb ’25€0.21
€0.31
+43.5%
9.7%€0.35€0.28n/a3
Jan ’25€0.24
€0.31
+30.1%
9.7%€0.35€0.28n/a3
Dec ’24€0.24
€0.31
+29.0%
9.7%€0.35€0.28n/a3
Nov ’24€0.22
€0.36
+60.5%
27.2%€0.52€0.27€0.0794
Oct ’24€0.22
€0.36
+63.4%
27.2%€0.52€0.27€0.0894
Sep ’24€0.23
€0.36
+57.7%
27.2%€0.52€0.27€0.084
Aug ’24€0.24
€0.38
+57.0%
26.9%€0.55€0.29€0.074
Jul ’24€0.23
€0.38
+63.7%
26.9%€0.55€0.29€0.0814
Jun ’24€0.27
€0.44
+60.8%
14.9%€0.54€0.37n/a4
May ’24€0.29
€0.44
+49.8%
14.9%€0.54€0.37€0.224
Apr ’24€0.32
€0.43
+34.8%
10.0%€0.48€0.38€0.233
Mar ’24€0.37
€0.43
+15.8%
10.0%€0.48€0.38€0.213
Feb ’24€0.39
€0.49
+26.1%
11.8%€0.56€0.42€0.213
Jan ’24€0.38
€0.49
+30.1%
11.8%€0.56€0.42€0.243
Dec ’23€0.38
€0.51
+34.4%
2.5%€0.53€0.50€0.242
Nov ’23€0.41
€0.57
+37.9%
7.2%€0.61€0.52€0.222

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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