Kirin Holdings Company, Limited

DB:KIR Stock Report

Market Cap: €10.5b

Kirin Holdings Company Valuation

Is KIR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KIR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KIR (€12.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€21.51)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KIR is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KIR?

Key metric: As KIR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KIR. This is calculated by dividing KIR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KIR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio15.6x
EarningsJP¥108.05b
Market CapJP¥1.69t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KIR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KIR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.7x
KUL Kulmbacher Brauerei Aktien-Gesellschaft
23.6xn/a€139.1m
SZU Südzucker
6.7x-10.2%€2.2b
291 China Resources Beer (Holdings)
14.9x10.4%HK$83.5b
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
9.8x-1.0%€1.9b
KIR Kirin Holdings Company
15.6x10.4%€1.7t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KIR is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the peer average (13.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KIR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Beverage Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KIR 15.6xIndustry Avg. 17.0xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KIR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the European Beverage industry average (17.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KIR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KIR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio15.6x
Fair PE Ratio22.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KIR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KIR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€12.80
€14.23
+11.2%
5.9%€16.21€13.10n/a11
Nov ’25€13.30
€14.05
+5.6%
5.9%€16.01€12.93n/a11
Oct ’25€13.40
€14.43
+7.7%
6.0%€16.48€13.31n/a11
Sep ’25€13.60
€14.04
+3.2%
6.7%€16.09€12.38n/a11
Aug ’25€12.60
€13.98
+11.0%
6.4%€16.03€12.33n/a11
Jul ’25€12.00
€13.08
+9.0%
5.8%€14.99€12.11n/a11
Jun ’25€12.70
€13.63
+7.3%
7.4%€15.86€12.33n/a12
May ’25€13.60
€13.98
+2.8%
8.5%€16.48€12.81n/a12
Apr ’25€12.72
€14.05
+10.5%
8.3%€16.53€12.86n/a12
Mar ’25€12.74
€14.32
+12.5%
8.2%€16.65€12.95n/a13
Feb ’25€13.18
€14.62
+11.0%
9.1%€17.74€13.07n/a13
Jan ’25€13.08
€15.10
+15.5%
8.8%€18.38€13.54n/a13
Dec ’24€12.84
€14.43
+12.4%
8.7%€17.63€12.99n/a14
Nov ’24€13.29
€14.53
+9.4%
9.4%€17.86€12.53€13.3013
Oct ’24€13.33
€15.08
+13.1%
8.6%€18.08€13.32€13.4011
Sep ’24€12.97
€15.00
+15.6%
8.5%€18.10€13.33€13.6012
Aug ’24€13.36
€15.28
+14.4%
7.6%€18.15€14.01€12.6011
Jul ’24€13.24
€16.04
+21.2%
7.9%€18.97€14.65€12.0010
Jun ’24€13.90
€16.00
+15.2%
8.0%€19.08€14.73€12.7011
Apr ’24€14.32
€16.37
+14.3%
7.3%€19.10€14.58€12.7212
Mar ’24€13.95
€16.87
+21.0%
8.4%€19.95€14.70€12.7414
Feb ’24€14.06
€16.98
+20.8%
8.2%€20.15€14.84€13.1814
Jan ’24€13.92
€17.79
+27.8%
10.3%€22.10€14.97€13.0815
Dec ’23€14.96
€17.51
+17.1%
9.6%€21.63€14.65€12.8415
Nov ’23€14.73
€17.19
+16.7%
10.5%€21.29€14.42€13.2915

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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