J. M. Smucker Valuation

Is JM2 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of JM2 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: JM2 (€105.8) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€341.24)

Significantly Below Fair Value: JM2 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for JM2?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

JM2 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA10.7x
PEG Ratio1.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does JM2's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for JM2 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.8x
SZU Südzucker
5x-28.8%€2.3b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
18.7xn/a€672.5m
NLM FRoSTA
12xn/a€415.6m
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
11.5x0.6%€2.1b
JM2 J. M. Smucker
16.8x9.9%€12.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: JM2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the peer average (11.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does JM2's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.5%
n/an/an/a
No. of CompaniesPE048121620

Fetching data

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a9.5%
n/an/an/a
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: JM2 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the European Food industry average (14.2x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is JM2's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

JM2 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.8x
Fair PE Ratio23.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: JM2 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.4x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst JM2 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€105.80
€112.53
+6.4%
5.1%€122.14€100.59n/a16
Sep ’25€102.75
€113.25
+10.2%
5.4%€122.79€101.12n/a16
Aug ’25€109.35
€117.07
+7.1%
6.1%€129.07€105.10n/a16
Jul ’25€100.60
€119.31
+18.6%
6.0%€131.08€106.74n/a16
Jun ’25€98.92
€119.81
+21.1%
5.5%€129.05€105.09n/a17
May ’25€106.95
€124.19
+16.1%
6.1%€143.05€107.29n/a18
Apr ’25€117.00
€121.63
+4.0%
7.3%€138.99€104.24n/a18
Mar ’25n/a
€123.04
0%
7.5%€140.27€105.20n/a17
Feb ’25€121.65
€120.61
-0.9%
8.8%€140.76€99.36n/a17
Jan ’25n/a
€116.88
0%
7.7%€128.24€98.93n/a15
Dec ’24€99.70
€116.01
+16.4%
6.8%€128.73€100.23n/a12
Nov ’24€106.80
€127.23
+19.1%
8.8%€149.50€103.14n/a13
Oct ’24€118.90
€134.22
+12.9%
7.3%€152.30€117.08€108.2013
Sep ’24n/a
€139.96
0%
6.7%€157.81€121.61€102.7513
Aug ’24€137.85
€135.85
-1.4%
7.5%€153.24€116.28€109.3514
Jul ’24€133.00
€137.81
+3.6%
7.1%€155.07€123.15€100.6014
Jun ’24n/a
€142.76
0%
8.8%€159.07€119.77€98.9214
May ’24€137.00
€139.11
+1.5%
9.2%€154.96€116.67€106.9513
Apr ’24€143.45
€142.12
-0.9%
9.2%€158.58€119.40€117.0011
Mar ’24€140.60
€142.17
+1.1%
9.3%€159.44€120.05n/a12
Feb ’24€137.80
€138.64
+0.6%
9.9%€156.45€113.20€121.6514
Jan ’24n/a
€141.40
0%
9.8%€160.11€115.84n/a14
Dec ’23€147.40
€139.53
-5.3%
8.4%€157.22€119.37€99.7013
Nov ’23€151.30
€145.15
-4.1%
9.0%€164.35€127.37€106.8013
Oct ’23€141.90
€140.59
-0.9%
10.1%€159.89€110.92€118.9013

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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