Greencore Group plc

DB:GCG Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.0b

Greencore Group Valuation

Is GCG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GCG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GCG (€2.3) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€6.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GCG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GCG?

Key metric: As GCG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GCG. This is calculated by dividing GCG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GCG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio16.3x
EarningsUK£52.20m
Market CapUK£848.68m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GCG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GCG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.1x
SZU Südzucker
6.7x-10.2%€2.2b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
15xn/a€609.4m
NLM FRoSTA
12xn/a€415.6m
SMB Schwälbchen Molkerei Jakob Berz
6.7xn/a€55.8m
GCG Greencore Group
16.7x10.7%€869.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GCG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (10.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GCG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GCG 16.3xIndustry Avg. 13.5xNo. of Companies19PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GCG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GCG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GCG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio16.3x
Fair PE Ratio18.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GCG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GCG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.30
€2.36
+2.7%
12.4%€3.00€1.98n/a7
Nov ’25€2.40
€2.36
-1.8%
12.4%€3.00€1.98n/a7
Oct ’25€2.16
€2.03
-6.0%
13.8%€2.40€1.56n/a7
Sep ’25€2.12
€2.01
-5.3%
13.8%€2.37€1.54n/a7
Aug ’25€2.08
€2.01
-3.5%
13.8%€2.37€1.54n/a7
Jul ’25€1.92
€1.87
-2.6%
18.5%€2.37€1.30n/a7
Jun ’25€2.02
€1.77
-12.3%
15.7%€2.23€1.29n/a7
May ’25€1.51
€1.35
-10.6%
18.0%€1.76€1.00n/a8
Apr ’25€1.32
€1.25
-5.3%
12.9%€1.52€1.00n/a8
Mar ’25€1.14
€1.25
+9.6%
12.9%€1.52€1.00n/a8
Feb ’25€1.16
€1.24
+6.5%
13.9%€1.52€1.00n/a8
Jan ’25€1.08
€1.19
+9.8%
16.6%€1.50€0.98n/a7
Dec ’24€1.08
€1.19
+9.8%
16.6%€1.50€0.98n/a7
Nov ’24€0.97
€1.07
+10.4%
7.0%€1.19€0.98€2.407
Oct ’24€0.81
€1.07
+31.8%
6.0%€1.17€0.99€2.167
Sep ’24€0.93
€1.07
+16.2%
6.0%€1.17€0.99€2.127
Aug ’24€0.96
€1.06
+10.8%
5.2%€1.14€0.99€2.087
Jul ’24€0.81
€1.00
+22.3%
8.4%€1.10€0.81€1.927
Jun ’24€0.90
€1.00
+10.7%
8.4%€1.10€0.81€2.027
May ’24€0.95
€0.98
+3.3%
9.1%€1.08€0.80€1.516
Apr ’24€0.85
€0.98
+15.4%
9.1%€1.08€0.80€1.326
Mar ’24€0.89
€1.00
+13.4%
20.9%€1.46€0.78€1.147
Feb ’24€0.88
€0.99
+12.9%
22.5%€1.47€0.79€1.167
Jan ’24€0.69
€1.09
+57.0%
22.8%€1.51€0.81€1.087
Dec ’23€0.72
€1.15
+58.8%
21.6%€1.51€0.87€1.087
Nov ’23€0.79
€1.15
+46.4%
20.3%€1.49€0.86€0.977

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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