China Mengniu Dairy Company Limited

DB:EZQ Stock Report

Market Cap: €8.2b

China Mengniu Dairy Valuation

Is EZQ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of EZQ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: EZQ (€2.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€4.9)

Significantly Below Fair Value: EZQ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for EZQ?

Key metric: As EZQ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for EZQ. This is calculated by dividing EZQ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is EZQ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.5x
EarningsCN¥4.23b
Market CapCN¥61.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does EZQ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for EZQ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.4x
SZU Südzucker
6.8x-10.2%€2.3b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
15.8xn/a€588.4m
NLM FRoSTA
12.2xn/a€405.3m
SMB Schwälbchen Molkerei Jakob Berz
6.7xn/a€51.9m
EZQ China Mengniu Dairy
14.5x10.8%€66.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: EZQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the peer average (10.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does EZQ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
EZQ 14.5xIndustry Avg. 13.2xNo. of Companies17PE0816243240+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: EZQ is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is EZQ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

EZQ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.5x
Fair PE Ratio23x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: EZQ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst EZQ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€2.02
€2.43
+20.2%
21.9%€3.65€1.60n/a27
Nov ’25€2.02
€2.36
+16.6%
21.9%€3.57€1.57n/a27
Oct ’25€2.10
€2.22
+5.7%
22.3%€3.52€1.53n/a27
Sep ’25€1.53
€2.30
+50.0%
25.1%€3.89€1.55n/a27
Aug ’25€1.51
€2.76
+83.0%
19.9%€3.90€1.55n/a27
Jul ’25€1.70
€2.98
+75.1%
18.1%€3.92€1.98n/a27
Jun ’25€1.65
€2.96
+79.4%
17.8%€3.88€1.96n/a27
May ’25€1.88
€3.03
+61.2%
18.1%€3.95€2.00n/a26
Apr ’25€1.90
€3.31
+74.1%
19.8%€4.97€2.16n/a27
Mar ’25€2.22
€3.89
+75.3%
19.5%€5.81€2.50n/a28
Feb ’25€2.00
€3.93
+96.5%
19.4%€5.84€2.51n/a28
Jan ’25€2.32
€4.25
+83.2%
14.5%€5.76€2.67n/a28
Dec ’24€2.68
€4.48
+67.3%
11.6%€5.75€3.62n/a28
Nov ’24€3.02
€4.58
+51.6%
10.8%€5.84€3.76€2.0228
Oct ’24€3.06
€4.59
+49.9%
10.9%€5.84€3.77€2.1028
Sep ’24€2.96
€4.73
+59.9%
10.3%€5.76€3.72€1.5328
Aug ’24€3.20
€4.79
+49.7%
7.6%€5.33€3.97€1.5128
Jul ’24€3.36
€4.89
+45.5%
7.0%€5.49€4.22€1.7027
Jun ’24€3.36
€5.04
+50.1%
6.8%€5.67€4.36€1.6527
May ’24€3.54
€5.06
+42.8%
7.4%€5.84€4.22€1.8827
Apr ’24€3.86
€5.23
+35.7%
8.3%€6.06€4.31€1.9024
Mar ’24€4.22
€5.68
+34.8%
8.0%€6.44€4.65€2.2228
Feb ’24€4.42
€5.66
+28.1%
9.9%€6.95€4.18€2.0028
Jan ’24€4.18
€5.62
+34.4%
10.7%€6.93€4.17€2.3228
Dec ’23€4.24
€5.66
+33.5%
10.7%€6.97€4.19€2.6828
Nov ’23€3.61
€5.95
+64.9%
11.1%€7.14€3.91€3.0228

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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