The a2 Milk Company Limited

DB:14L Stock Report

Market Cap: €2.5b

a2 Milk Valuation

Is 14L undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 14L when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 14L (€3.39) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€12.98)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 14L is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 14L?

Key metric: As 14L is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 14L. This is calculated by dividing 14L's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 14L's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio27.2x
EarningsNZ$167.58m
Market CapNZ$4.56b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 14L's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 14L vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.8x
SZU Südzucker
6.4x-10.2%€2.2b
SSH Südwestdeutsche Salzwerke
14.4xn/a€572.7m
NLM FRoSTA
12.4xn/a€419.0m
KWS KWS SAAT SE KGaA
10x1.7%€2.0b
14L a2 Milk
27.2x12.6%€4.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 14L is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.2x) compared to the peer average (10.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 14L's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Food Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
14L 27.2xIndustry Avg. 13.7xNo. of Companies20PE01020304050+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 14L is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.2x) compared to the European Food industry average (13.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 14L's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

14L PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio27.2x
Fair PE Ratio20.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 14L is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.9x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 14L forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.39
€3.76
+11.0%
7.9%€4.35€3.48n/a9
Dec ’25€3.50
€3.86
+10.3%
7.9%€4.46€3.57n/a9
Nov ’25€3.43
€3.85
+12.1%
8.5%€4.46€3.51n/a8
Oct ’25€3.78
€3.92
+3.6%
8.6%€4.55€3.58n/a8
Sep ’25€3.40
€3.93
+15.7%
8.7%€4.52€3.56n/a7
Aug ’25€4.23
€3.85
-8.9%
11.6%€4.47€3.25n/a7
Jul ’25€4.07
€3.81
-6.3%
9.3%€4.57€3.43n/a7
Jun ’25€4.25
€3.73
-12.1%
9.5%€4.50€3.38n/a7
May ’25€3.62
€3.70
+2.2%
12.4%€4.57€3.00n/a7
Apr ’25€3.68
€3.70
+0.4%
12.4%€4.57€3.00n/a7
Mar ’25€3.39
€3.70
+9.1%
12.4%€4.57€3.00n/a7
Feb ’25€2.90
€3.39
+17.0%
18.8%€4.49€2.58n/a7
Jan ’25€2.60
€3.30
+26.7%
19.9%€4.40€2.34€3.407
Dec ’24€2.30
€3.30
+43.1%
19.9%€4.40€2.34€3.507
Nov ’24€2.26
€3.33
+47.8%
18.6%€4.41€2.54€3.437
Oct ’24€2.66
€3.37
+26.8%
17.2%€4.38€2.52€3.787
Sep ’24€2.63
€3.37
+28.3%
17.2%€4.38€2.52€3.407
Aug ’24€3.04
€3.91
+28.6%
17.6%€5.05€2.98€4.237
Jul ’24€2.94
€3.91
+33.2%
17.6%€5.05€2.98€4.077
Jun ’24€3.17
€3.70
+17.0%
14.1%€4.51€3.04€4.256
May ’24€3.23
€3.62
+12.0%
15.1%€4.43€2.97€3.626
Apr ’24€3.54
€4.08
+15.3%
16.9%€5.22€3.14€3.687
Mar ’24€4.14
€4.02
-2.8%
18.1%€5.19€2.92€3.397
Feb ’24€4.33
€3.92
-9.5%
21.6%€5.59€2.96€2.907
Jan ’24€4.25
€3.92
-7.8%
22.4%€5.62€2.83€2.607

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 15:50
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

The a2 Milk Company Limited is covered by 21 analysts. 15 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightBarclay Pearce Capital Pty Limited
Thomas KierathBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Jonathan SnapeBell Potter