Ithaca Energy Valuation

Is XE3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of XE3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: XE3 (€1.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€3.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: XE3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XE3?

Key metric: As XE3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for XE3. This is calculated by dividing XE3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is XE3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.8x
EarningsUS$161.77m
Market CapUS$2.06b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does XE3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for XE3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
2.7x-8.9%€159.7m
CE2 CropEnergies
15.3x-7.5%€1.0b
CE2 CropEnergies
82.4xn/a€1.2b
VH2 Friedrich Vorwerk Group
19.5x12.9%€549.0m
XE3 Ithaca Energy
12.8x-9.3%€1.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XE3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the peer average (30x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does XE3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
XE3 12.8xIndustry Avg. 8.3xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XE3 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is XE3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

XE3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.8x
Fair PE Ratio15.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: XE3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.1x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst XE3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€1.20
€1.70
+41.8%
14.4%€2.10€1.41n/a7
Nov ’25€1.20
€1.70
+42.0%
15.1%€2.12€1.36n/a7
Oct ’25€1.30
€1.73
+33.1%
23.3%€2.51€1.31n/a6
Sep ’25€1.58
€1.77
+12.3%
20.6%€2.52€1.32n/a6
Aug ’25€1.52
€1.82
+20.0%
19.6%€2.55€1.37n/a6
Jul ’25€1.46
€1.82
+25.0%
19.6%€2.55€1.37n/a6
Jun ’25€1.58
€1.89
+19.7%
16.9%€2.52€1.64n/a5
May ’25€1.43
€1.90
+32.9%
16.2%€2.49€1.64n/a5
Apr ’25€1.61
€2.11
+31.1%
13.8%€2.47€1.82n/a5
Mar ’25€1.64
€2.09
+27.7%
11.5%€2.47€1.82n/a8
Feb ’25€1.63
€2.15
+32.1%
12.0%€2.46€1.81n/a8
Jan ’25€1.77
€2.22
+25.3%
13.3%€2.63€1.75n/a8
Dec ’24€1.78
€2.18
+22.6%
13.7%€2.59€1.73n/a8
Nov ’24€1.90
€2.19
+15.4%
12.2%€2.46€1.76€1.208
Oct ’24€2.18
€2.20
+1.1%
10.4%€2.42€1.83€1.308
Sep ’24€1.69
€2.18
+28.8%
11.4%€2.50€1.79€1.588
Aug ’24€2.02
€2.19
+8.5%
8.8%€2.42€1.86€1.528
Jul ’24€1.66
€2.22
+33.9%
13.6%€2.82€1.86€1.467
Jun ’24€1.67
€2.45
+46.8%
15.7%€3.01€1.90€1.586
May ’24€1.84
€2.49
+35.3%
15.6%€2.95€1.93€1.436
Apr ’24€1.75
€2.59
+48.0%
17.6%€3.06€1.77€1.616
Mar ’24n/a
€2.61
0%
20.6%€3.20€1.60€1.646
Feb ’24n/a
€2.77
0%
11.7%€3.19€2.20€1.635
Jan ’24n/a
€2.82
0%
12.4%€3.24€2.28€1.774

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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