Suncor Energy Inc.

DB:SM3 Stock Report

Market Cap: €43.6b

Suncor Energy Valuation

Is SM3 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SM3 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SM3 (€35.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€65.16)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SM3 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SM3?

Key metric: As SM3 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SM3. This is calculated by dividing SM3's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SM3's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.1x
EarningsCA$8.02b
Market CapCA$64.56b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SM3's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SM3 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.3x
ENI Eni
17.2x17.1%€42.3b
OXY Occidental Petroleum
13.2x6.3%US$46.4b
LKOH PJSC LUKOIL
3.3xn/a₽2.5t
ONGC Oil and Natural Gas
7.5x10.1%₹3.1t
SM3 Suncor Energy
8.1x-12.6%€64.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SM3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the peer average (12.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SM3's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
SM3 8.1xIndustry Avg. 8.6xNo. of Companies16PE0612182430+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SM3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SM3's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SM3 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.1x
Fair PE Ratio18.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SM3 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SM3 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€35.20
€41.01
+16.5%
7.1%€44.91€33.51n/a21
Dec ’25€37.67
€41.97
+11.4%
8.1%€51.29€33.74n/a21
Nov ’25€34.37
€39.69
+15.5%
8.9%€48.79€33.42n/a21
Oct ’25€34.05
€40.21
+18.1%
9.1%€48.88€33.48n/a21
Sep ’25€36.87
€40.41
+9.6%
10.0%€51.05€33.15n/a21
Aug ’25€36.80
€40.32
+9.6%
9.6%€50.16€33.44n/a21
Jul ’25€35.54
€40.85
+14.9%
10.6%€53.99€34.17n/a20
Jun ’25€36.60
€40.47
+10.6%
10.5%€53.44€33.83n/a20
May ’25€36.71
€37.69
+2.7%
6.3%€44.23€34.02n/a18
Apr ’25€33.57
€35.99
+7.2%
6.3%€41.07€31.48n/a18
Mar ’25€32.28
€35.41
+9.7%
7.9%€41.06€30.80n/a19
Feb ’25€30.83
€35.36
+14.7%
8.3%€41.30€30.98n/a19
Jan ’25€28.66
€36.67
+27.9%
13.0%€50.65€31.48€33.6219
Dec ’24€30.79
€37.27
+21.0%
12.2%€50.10€31.82€37.6719
Nov ’24€30.46
€37.12
+21.9%
12.6%€50.42€32.02€34.3719
Oct ’24€33.18
€36.36
+9.6%
11.4%€48.42€30.88€34.0518
Sep ’24€31.12
€34.32
+10.3%
11.4%€44.71€29.80€36.8718
Aug ’24€28.58
€34.04
+19.1%
12.8%€45.33€28.85€36.8018
Jul ’24€26.72
€35.26
+32.0%
12.8%€45.84€29.17€35.5417
Jun ’24€26.27
€35.37
+34.6%
12.5%€45.25€28.80€36.6017
May ’24€27.52
€35.62
+29.4%
10.9%€44.21€29.48€36.7118
Apr ’24€28.73
€36.33
+26.4%
10.2%€44.88€29.92€33.5719
Mar ’24€31.81
€37.26
+17.1%
10.0%€45.72€30.48€32.2819
Feb ’24€31.71
€36.40
+14.8%
11.9%€45.63€29.73€30.8320
Jan ’24€29.40
€37.10
+26.2%
9.1%€44.79€30.32€28.6620

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/02 21:43
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/02 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Suncor Energy Inc. is covered by 53 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harshit GuptaAccountability Research Corporation
Patrick O'RourkeATB Capital Markets
Yim ChengBarclays