Kosmos Energy Ltd.

DB:KOS1 Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.8b

Kosmos Energy Valuation

Is KOS1 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of KOS1 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: KOS1 (€3.7) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€7.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: KOS1 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for KOS1?

Key metric: As KOS1 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for KOS1. This is calculated by dividing KOS1's market cap by their current earnings.
What is KOS1's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.3x
EarningsUS$218.11m
Market CapUS$1.86b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does KOS1's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for KOS1 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
2.9x-8.9%€170.6m
CE2 CropEnergies
82.6xn/a€1.2b
CE2 CropEnergies
15.3x-7.5%€1.0b
VH2 Friedrich Vorwerk Group
19.1x12.9%€538.0m
KOS1 Kosmos Energy
8.3x0.9%€1.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: KOS1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the peer average (30x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does KOS1's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
KOS1 8.3xIndustry Avg. 9.0xNo. of Companies17PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: KOS1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (9.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is KOS1's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

KOS1 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.3x
Fair PE Ratio17.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: KOS1 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst KOS1 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€3.70
€6.57
+77.6%
25.1%€9.12€3.84n/a8
Nov ’25€3.38
€6.53
+93.1%
22.1%€8.75€4.61n/a8
Oct ’25€3.57
€6.43
+79.9%
22.0%€8.53€4.49n/a8
Sep ’25€4.48
€7.23
+61.6%
19.8%€9.61€4.57n/a7
Aug ’25€5.04
€7.31
+44.8%
19.8%€9.70€4.62n/a7
Jul ’25€5.13
€7.69
+50.0%
13.1%€9.78€6.52n/a7
Jun ’25€5.53
€7.73
+39.8%
14.6%€9.66€6.44n/a7
May ’25€5.45
€7.77
+42.5%
15.1%€9.77€6.52n/a7
Apr ’25€5.49
€7.63
+39.0%
15.1%€9.60€6.40n/a7
Mar ’25€5.62
€7.77
+38.3%
14.6%€9.71€6.48n/a7
Feb ’25€5.55
€8.45
+52.3%
8.8%€9.59€7.31n/a8
Jan ’25€5.99
€8.59
+43.4%
8.4%€9.55€7.28n/a8
Dec ’24€6.17
€9.03
+46.3%
17.2%€12.79€7.31n/a8
Nov ’24€6.88
€9.26
+34.6%
14.3%€12.19€7.97€3.387
Oct ’24€7.69
€9.46
+23.0%
15.7%€12.30€8.04€3.578
Sep ’24€6.65
€9.05
+36.1%
16.0%€12.07€7.89€4.489
Aug ’24€6.38
€8.84
+38.5%
16.8%€11.68€7.19€5.048
Jul ’24€5.34
€9.28
+73.8%
17.4%€11.96€7.36€5.137
Jun ’24€5.55
€8.78
+58.1%
24.9%€12.07€4.65€5.538
May ’24€5.70
€8.96
+57.2%
25.2%€12.78€4.57€5.458
Apr ’24€6.62
€8.93
+35.0%
24.0%€12.89€4.61€5.498
Mar ’24€7.18
€9.01
+25.5%
22.7%€13.23€4.73€5.6210
Feb ’24€7.12
€8.77
+23.3%
23.9%€12.91€4.62€5.559
Jan ’24€5.77
€8.71
+50.8%
20.9%€11.40€4.76€5.999
Dec ’23€5.99
€8.71
+45.4%
20.9%€11.40€4.76€6.179
Nov ’23€6.60
€9.20
+39.4%
21.8%€12.03€5.02€6.889

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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