Hess Corporation

DB:AHC Stock Report

Market Cap: €43.2b

Hess Valuation

Is AHC undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AHC when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AHC (€139.46) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€10)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AHC is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AHC?

Key metric: As AHC is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for AHC. This is calculated by dividing AHC's market cap by their current earnings.
What is AHC's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.2x
EarningsUS$2.64b
Market CapUS$45.29b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does AHC's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for AHC vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average27.5x
DR0 Deutsche Rohstoff
2.8x-8.9%€166.6m
FANG Diamondback Energy
16.7x11.1%US$53.0b
TPL Texas Pacific Land
77.6xn/aUS$33.3b
PXD Pioneer Natural Resources
12.9x0.7%US$62.5b
AHC Hess
17.2x16.0%€45.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: AHC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (27.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AHC's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Oil and Gas Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AHC 17.2xIndustry Avg. 8.2xNo. of Companies18PE0612182430+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: AHC is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the European Oil and Gas industry average (8.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AHC's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AHC PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.2x
Fair PE Ratio29.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: AHC is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AHC forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€139.46
€154.38
+10.7%
8.4%€187.82€136.85n/a14
Nov ’25€123.42
€149.14
+20.8%
7.8%€178.36€133.31n/a14
Oct ’25€121.60
€143.68
+18.2%
8.5%€173.75€128.97n/a14
Sep ’25€124.46
€151.48
+21.7%
9.6%€188.75€135.72n/a13
Aug ’25€137.00
€159.70
+16.6%
9.7%€194.74€144.22n/a13
Jul ’25€137.02
€162.77
+18.8%
9.1%€198.07€149.49n/a14
Jun ’25€138.28
€160.83
+16.3%
9.9%€194.83€133.26n/a15
May ’25€151.96
€161.84
+6.5%
9.5%€197.73€135.24n/a16
Apr ’25€138.80
€154.58
+11.4%
10.0%€187.70€132.76n/a16
Mar ’25€134.60
€154.15
+14.5%
10.4%€184.32€129.02n/a16
Feb ’25€129.80
€152.47
+17.5%
9.2%€180.56€128.97n/a16
Jan ’25€130.40
€152.76
+17.1%
8.1%€179.05€136.34n/a17
Dec ’24€128.65
€158.51
+23.2%
9.1%€196.54€140.39n/a17
Nov ’24€136.10
€162.65
+19.5%
8.9%€198.91€142.08€123.4217
Oct ’24€147.70
€157.67
+6.7%
12.3%€199.90€111.37€121.6022
Sep ’24€142.00
€152.29
+7.2%
12.0%€189.87€107.84€124.4622
Aug ’24€136.75
€145.60
+6.5%
14.2%€186.65€76.48€137.0022
Jul ’24€124.75
€145.71
+16.8%
13.9%€187.86€76.98€137.0221
Jun ’24€117.80
€149.30
+26.7%
14.2%€191.29€78.38€138.2821
May ’24€131.15
€144.83
+10.4%
12.8%€181.50€84.40€151.9622
Apr ’24€120.24
€144.50
+20.2%
13.3%€184.38€85.74€138.8023
Mar ’24€126.70
€147.80
+16.6%
12.8%€187.28€87.09€134.6024
Feb ’24€129.06
€144.87
+12.3%
13.4%€184.06€80.99€129.8024
Jan ’24€130.66
€138.11
+5.7%
13.1%€164.96€82.95€130.4023
Dec ’23€138.46
€140.91
+1.8%
13.3%€168.25€84.60€128.6523
Nov ’23€145.76
€144.57
-0.8%
13.6%€177.14€89.07€136.1023

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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