A Look At The Fair Value Of VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG (ETR:VBK)

Key Insights

• VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie's estimated fair value is €37.97 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• With €31.50 share price, VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie appears to be trading close to its estimated fair value
• The €58.50 analyst price target for VBK is 54% more than our estimate of fair value

Does the November share price for VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG (ETR:VBK) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	-€112.2m	€54.3m	€69.5m	€154.4m	€162.2m	€167.6m	€171.7m	€174.8m	€177.4m	€179.4m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 3.30%	Est @ 2.45%	Est @ 1.85%	Est @ 1.44%	Est @ 1.14%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 6.4%	-€105	€48.0	€57.7	€121	€119	€116	€111	€107	€102	€96.6

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €772m

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (0.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €179m× (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (6.4%– 0.5%) = €3.0b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €3.0b÷ ( 1 + 6.4%)¹⁰= €1.6b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €2.4b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €31.5, the company appears about fair value at a 17% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.184. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie

Looking Ahead:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie, we've compiled three further elements you should assess:

1. Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.
2. Future Earnings: How does VBK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every German stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.