Starwood Property Trust, Inc.

DB:VSP Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.4b

Starwood Property Trust Valuation

Is VSP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of VSP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: VSP (€19.07) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€27.22)

Significantly Below Fair Value: VSP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VSP?

Key metric: As VSP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for VSP. This is calculated by dividing VSP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is VSP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18x
EarningsUS$372.22m
Market CapUS$6.72b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does VSP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for VSP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average39.6x
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13.2x12.7%€7.9b
T2G Tradegate Wertpapierhandelsbank
86.6xn/a€2.2b
HYQ Hypoport
47x30.4%€1.4b
RITM Rithm Capital
11.8x21.1%US$5.7b
VSP Starwood Property Trust
18x23.9%€6.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VSP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the peer average (39.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does VSP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VSP 18.0xIndustry Avg. 10.6xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VSP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the Global Mortgage REITs industry average (10.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is VSP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

VSP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18x
Fair PE Ratio19.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: VSP is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst VSP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€19.07
€21.31
+11.8%
8.0%€23.75€19.00n/a8
Nov ’25€18.14
€20.84
+14.9%
7.9%€22.96€17.91n/a8
Oct ’25€18.05
€20.21
+12.0%
8.3%€22.40€17.47n/a8
Sep ’25€18.77
€19.73
+5.1%
8.6%€22.35€17.43n/a8
Aug ’25€18.07
€19.96
+10.5%
7.6%€22.03€17.90n/a8
Jul ’25€17.39
€19.69
+13.2%
7.1%€22.05€17.92n/a7
Jun ’25€17.83
€19.91
+11.7%
6.1%€22.08€18.40n/a7
May ’25€17.70
€20.48
+15.7%
6.1%€22.48€18.74n/a7
Apr ’25€18.72
€20.49
+9.5%
5.7%€22.11€19.34n/a8
Mar ’25€18.94
€20.68
+9.2%
5.6%€22.18€19.41n/a8
Feb ’25€18.54
€20.39
+10.0%
6.3%€22.05€18.84n/a8
Jan ’25€19.14
€20.23
+5.7%
6.7%€21.95€18.29n/a8
Dec ’24€18.86
€20.64
+9.4%
6.3%€22.66€18.88n/a7
Nov ’24€16.94
€20.64
+21.8%
6.3%€22.66€18.88€18.147
Oct ’24€18.26
€20.66
+13.1%
5.3%€22.46€19.65€18.057
Sep ’24€19.10
€19.71
+3.2%
6.9%€21.81€17.27€18.778
Aug ’24€18.72
€18.98
+1.4%
8.8%€21.70€17.18€18.078
Jul ’24€17.72
€18.26
+3.1%
8.2%€21.54€16.95€17.397
Jun ’24€16.40
€18.12
+10.5%
8.1%€21.68€17.07€17.837
May ’24€16.20
€19.40
+19.8%
13.9%€25.35€16.75€17.707
Apr ’24€16.25
€21.44
+31.9%
9.6%€26.10€19.57€18.727
Mar ’24€18.04
€21.97
+21.8%
9.1%€26.26€19.70€18.947
Feb ’24€19.32
€22.24
+15.1%
7.9%€25.81€20.28€18.548
Jan ’24€17.11
€22.87
+33.7%
6.7%€26.21€21.06€19.148
Dec ’23€20.43
€23.71
+16.1%
6.4%€27.03€21.72€18.868
Nov ’23€20.99
€25.37
+20.9%
7.4%€28.35€22.78€16.948

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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