Radian Group Inc.

DB:RAG Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.9b

Radian Group Valuation

Is RAG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RAG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RAG (€32.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€102.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RAG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RAG?

Key metric: As RAG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RAG. This is calculated by dividing RAG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RAG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.6x
EarningsUS$598.84m
Market CapUS$5.14b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RAG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RAG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.5x
ARLN Aareal Bank
13.7x24.6%€2.0b
PBB Deutsche Pfandbriefbank
10.8x34.1%€702.0m
HYQ Hypoport
51.9x29.8%€1.5b
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13.4x13.1%€8.0b
RAG Radian Group
8.6x-5.0%€5.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the peer average (22.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RAG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Diversified Financial Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RAG 8.6xIndustry Avg. 10.8xNo. of Companies14PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the European Diversified Financial industry average (11x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RAG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RAG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.6x
Fair PE Ratio12.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RAG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€32.40
€33.84
+4.4%
9.4%€38.61€30.14n/a7
Nov ’25€30.00
€33.84
+12.8%
8.4%€37.86€30.48n/a7
Oct ’25€30.80
€32.72
+6.2%
8.1%€36.14€28.91n/a7
Sep ’25€32.00
€32.88
+2.8%
7.6%€36.61€29.29n/a7
Aug ’25€34.00
€31.90
-6.2%
5.5%€34.29€29.19n/a7
Jul ’25€28.60
€30.09
+5.2%
6.8%€33.18€27.65n/a7
Jun ’25€28.00
€30.03
+7.3%
6.2%€32.34€27.72n/a7
May ’25€27.80
€29.93
+7.7%
8.0%€32.74€26.19n/a7
Apr ’25€30.80
€29.31
-4.8%
9.3%€33.27€25.88n/a7
Mar ’25€26.60
€29.31
+10.2%
9.3%€33.27€25.88n/a7
Feb ’25€26.40
€28.26
+7.1%
11.0%€33.13€23.93n/a7
Jan ’25€25.80
€27.34
+6.0%
9.1%€32.52€24.16n/a7
Dec ’24€23.20
€27.27
+17.6%
9.5%€32.18€23.90n/a6
Nov ’24€23.60
€28.20
+19.5%
9.8%€33.12€24.60€30.005
Oct ’24€23.60
€27.89
+18.2%
9.8%€32.76€24.33€30.805
Sep ’24€24.80
€26.50
+6.9%
10.4%€31.80€23.63€32.006
Aug ’24€24.20
€24.78
+2.4%
9.5%€27.97€21.44€34.006
Jul ’24€22.80
€24.78
+8.7%
9.5%€27.97€21.44€28.606
Jun ’24€23.60
€24.78
+5.0%
9.5%€27.97€21.44€28.006
May ’24€21.40
€23.83
+11.3%
10.2%€27.49€21.08€27.806
Apr ’24€19.70
€22.97
+16.6%
10.1%€27.66€20.74€30.806
Mar ’24€19.70
€22.81
+15.8%
11.1%€28.09€19.66€26.607
Feb ’24€20.00
€22.02
+10.1%
11.0%€27.31€19.12€26.408
Jan ’24€17.70
€23.83
+34.6%
9.6%€29.03€21.29€25.808
Dec ’23€18.50
€23.83
+28.8%
9.6%€29.03€21.29€23.208
Nov ’23€20.60
€26.41
+28.2%
8.2%€30.84€24.16€23.608

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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