Radian Group Inc.

DB:RAG Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.8b

Radian Group Valuation

Is RAG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of RAG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: RAG (€31.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€102.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: RAG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for RAG?

Key metric: As RAG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for RAG. This is calculated by dividing RAG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is RAG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.2x
EarningsUS$598.84m
Market CapUS$5.02b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does RAG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for RAG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average18.9x
PBB Deutsche Pfandbriefbank
10.6x35.1%€646.8m
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13.4x13.0%€8.2b
HYQ Hypoport
37.1x29.1%€1.1b
FTK flatexDEGIRO
14.3x8.1%€1.7b
RAG Radian Group
8.2x-4.0%€5.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: RAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the peer average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does RAG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Diversified Financial Industry?

7 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
RAG 8.2xIndustry Avg. 11.4xNo. of Companies13PE01020304050+
7 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: RAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the European Diversified Financial industry average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is RAG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

RAG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.2x
Fair PE Ratio13x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: RAG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst RAG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€31.40
€34.54
+10.0%
8.3%€38.95€31.35n/a7
Dec ’25€33.00
€33.52
+1.6%
9.4%€38.25€29.86n/a7
Nov ’25€30.00
€33.84
+12.8%
8.4%€37.86€30.48n/a7
Oct ’25€30.80
€32.72
+6.2%
8.1%€36.14€28.91n/a7
Sep ’25€32.00
€32.88
+2.8%
7.6%€36.61€29.29n/a7
Aug ’25€34.00
€31.90
-6.2%
5.5%€34.29€29.19n/a7
Jul ’25€28.60
€30.09
+5.2%
6.8%€33.18€27.65n/a7
Jun ’25€28.00
€30.03
+7.3%
6.2%€32.34€27.72n/a7
May ’25€27.80
€29.93
+7.7%
8.0%€32.74€26.19n/a7
Apr ’25€30.80
€29.31
-4.8%
9.3%€33.27€25.88n/a7
Mar ’25€26.60
€29.31
+10.2%
9.3%€33.27€25.88n/a7
Feb ’25€26.40
€28.26
+7.1%
11.0%€33.13€23.93n/a7
Jan ’25€25.80
€27.34
+6.0%
9.1%€32.52€24.16n/a7
Dec ’24€23.20
€27.27
+17.6%
9.5%€32.18€23.90€33.006
Nov ’24€23.60
€28.20
+19.5%
9.8%€33.12€24.60€30.005
Oct ’24€23.60
€27.89
+18.2%
9.8%€32.76€24.33€30.805
Sep ’24€24.80
€26.50
+6.9%
10.4%€31.80€23.63€32.006
Aug ’24€24.20
€24.78
+2.4%
9.5%€27.97€21.44€34.006
Jul ’24€22.80
€24.78
+8.7%
9.5%€27.97€21.44€28.606
Jun ’24€23.60
€24.78
+5.0%
9.5%€27.97€21.44€28.006
May ’24€21.40
€23.83
+11.3%
10.2%€27.49€21.08€27.806
Apr ’24€19.70
€22.97
+16.6%
10.1%€27.66€20.74€30.806
Mar ’24€19.70
€22.81
+15.8%
11.1%€28.09€19.66€26.607
Feb ’24€20.00
€22.02
+10.1%
11.0%€27.31€19.12€26.408
Jan ’24€17.70
€23.83
+34.6%
9.6%€29.03€21.29€25.808
Dec ’23€18.50
€23.83
+28.8%
9.6%€29.03€21.29€23.208

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/17 14:05
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/17 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Radian Group Inc. is covered by 22 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Bruce HartingBarclays
Terry MaBarclays
Mihir BhatiaBofA Global Research