Janus Henderson Group plc

DB:HDJA Stock Report

Market Cap: €6.7b

Janus Henderson Group Valuation

Is HDJA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HDJA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HDJA (€41) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€64.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HDJA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HDJA?

Key metric: As HDJA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HDJA. This is calculated by dividing HDJA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is HDJA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.2x
EarningsUS$398.20m
Market CapUS$6.87b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HDJA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HDJA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.1x
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13.5x13.0%€8.0b
MLP MLP
10.3x7.8%€665.6m
DBAN Deutsche Beteiligungs
9.2x35.3%€438.1m
O4B OVB Holding
15.4x3.5%€285.0m
HDJA Janus Henderson Group
17.2x8.0%€6.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HDJA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (12.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HDJA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.8x-19.3%US$208.30m
SPT6 Sparta
2.5xn/aUS$171.96m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.60m
No more companies available in this PE range
HDJA 17.2xIndustry Avg. 20.4xNo. of Companies7PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HDJA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HDJA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HDJA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.2x
Fair PE Ratio16.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: HDJA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst HDJA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€41.00
€41.50
+1.2%
15.2%€49.01€24.31n/a12
Dec ’25€41.80
€39.62
-5.2%
14.3%€47.33€23.95n/a12
Nov ’25€37.60
€37.40
-0.5%
15.2%€46.14€23.35n/a12
Oct ’25€33.40
€33.63
+0.7%
12.8%€41.31€22.72n/a12
Sep ’25€32.80
€32.84
+0.1%
14.7%€41.10€22.61n/a11
Aug ’25€33.80
€32.29
-4.5%
12.3%€37.99€23.45n/a11
Jul ’25€30.40
€30.59
+0.6%
10.7%€36.32€23.56n/a11
Jun ’25€29.80
€30.13
+1.1%
11.1%€36.08€23.40n/a11
May ’25€29.00
€29.41
+1.4%
8.4%€32.70€23.64n/a11
Apr ’25€29.60
€28.11
-5.0%
10.2%€35.38€23.55n/a12
Mar ’25€28.20
€27.62
-2.0%
10.2%€35.25€23.47n/a12
Feb ’25€26.80
€26.32
-1.8%
11.2%€34.96€23.00n/a12
Jan ’25€27.20
€24.23
-10.9%
7.9%€28.15€22.70€40.4010
Dec ’24€23.80
€23.54
-1.1%
7.8%€28.48€20.21€41.8011
Nov ’24n/a
€24.06
0%
8.8%€29.34€20.82€37.6010
Oct ’24n/a
€24.93
0%
8.2%€30.35€22.99€33.409
Sep ’24n/a
€24.93
0%
8.2%€30.35€22.99€32.809
Aug ’24n/a
€24.12
0%
5.3%€26.78€22.32€33.8010
Jul ’24n/a
€24.21
0%
5.1%€27.37€22.81€30.4010
Jun ’24n/a
€24.65
0%
5.6%€27.97€22.37€29.8010
May ’24n/a
€22.95
0%
8.2%€27.17€19.92€29.0011
Apr ’24n/a
€23.39
0%
10.1%€27.66€18.90€29.6011
Mar ’24€24.80
€23.90
-3.6%
9.6%€28.05€19.17€28.2011
Feb ’24€22.60
€20.87
-7.7%
8.1%€23.93€18.41€26.8011
Jan ’24€22.20
€19.84
-10.6%
10.6%€22.49€15.93€27.2011

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/05 12:32
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Janus Henderson Group plc is covered by 45 analysts. 7 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Sarah SpikesArden Partners Plc.
Haley TamAuerbach Grayson
Daniel GarrodBarclays