Morgan Stanley

DB:DWD Stock Report

Market Cap: €214.6b

Morgan Stanley Valuation

Is DWD undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DWD when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€159.37
Fair Value
15.9% undervalued intrinsic discount
18
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: DWD (€134.06) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€159.37)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DWD is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DWD?

Key metric: As DWD is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DWD. This is calculated by dividing DWD's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DWD's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.4x
EarningsUS$12.80b
Market CapUS$222.46b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DWD's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DWD vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average34.4x
FTK flatexDEGIRO
15.1x9.0%€1.8b
T2G Tradegate Wertpapierhandelsbank
85.6xn/a€2.1b
DBK Deutsche Bank
13.2x22.0%€36.8b
DB1 Deutsche Börse
23.7x5.5%€43.7b
DWD Morgan Stanley
17.4x7.6%€222.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DWD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the peer average (34.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DWD's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.9x-19.3%US$210.93m
SPT6 Sparta
2.6xn/aUS$174.98m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.64m
No more companies available in this PE range
DWD 17.4xIndustry Avg. 18.9xNo. of Companies8PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DWD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DWD's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DWD PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.4x
Fair PE Ratio24.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DWD is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DWD forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€134.06
€131.79
-1.7%
9.1%€150.49€102.26n/a18
Jan ’26€121.54
€122.38
+0.7%
10.0%€138.97€99.67n/a18
Dec ’25€125.12
€118.95
-4.9%
10.1%€135.30€95.28n/a17
Nov ’25€107.80
€107.60
-0.2%
10.5%€124.31€89.32n/a18
Oct ’25€93.42
€95.41
+2.1%
8.0%€109.31€82.21n/a18
Sep ’25€92.61
€94.54
+2.1%
8.9%€109.01€81.31n/a19
Aug ’25€95.30
€98.14
+3.0%
9.2%€113.06€84.33n/a18
Jul ’25€91.98
€92.66
+0.7%
8.4%€109.89€82.89n/a21
Jun ’25€89.71
€91.66
+2.2%
8.3%€108.65€81.95n/a21
May ’25€85.57
€92.56
+8.2%
8.8%€110.37€82.31n/a21
Apr ’25€86.44
€88.59
+2.5%
8.7%€108.00€77.27n/a21
Mar ’25€79.57
€88.11
+10.7%
9.3%€107.54€77.78n/a21
Feb ’25€80.77
€87.44
+8.3%
9.6%€106.99€73.78€134.0621
Jan ’25€84.53
€83.14
-1.6%
8.9%€97.16€72.64€121.5422
Dec ’24€74.09
€81.92
+10.6%
9.6%€96.47€67.62€125.1222
Nov ’24€66.86
€86.48
+29.3%
9.6%€104.19€69.71€107.8022
Oct ’24€77.75
€92.62
+19.1%
8.8%€106.04€75.74€93.4223
Sep ’24€78.59
€91.08
+15.9%
9.0%€103.97€74.26€92.6123
Aug ’24€83.23
€89.73
+7.8%
9.3%€101.98€72.84€95.3023
Jul ’24€78.37
€88.23
+12.6%
10.6%€102.70€73.36€91.9823
Jun ’24€76.66
€90.92
+18.6%
10.2%€104.51€74.65€89.7123
May ’24€81.21
€89.02
+9.6%
9.4%€101.42€72.44€85.5723
Apr ’24€80.03
€95.00
+18.7%
10.6%€116.18€74.35€86.4423
Mar ’24€90.92
€96.97
+6.6%
9.7%€117.93€79.25€79.5723
Feb ’24€88.73
€93.66
+5.6%
9.5%€114.99€77.27€80.7723
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
€132.30
Fair Value
1.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
18
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/02 02:20
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Morgan Stanley is covered by 48 analysts. 19 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Stephen BiggarArgus Research Company
Jason GoldbergBarclays
Jason GoldbergBarclays