Daiwa Securities Group Inc.

DB:DSE Stock Report

Market Cap: €8.8b

Daiwa Securities Group Valuation

Is DSE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of DSE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: DSE (€6.05) is trading above our estimate of fair value (€5.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: DSE is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for DSE?

Key metric: As DSE is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for DSE. This is calculated by dividing DSE's market cap by their current earnings.
What is DSE's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.7x
EarningsJP¥145.84b
Market CapJP¥1.42t

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does DSE's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for DSE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average53.8x
FTK flatexDEGIRO
12.4x8.4%€1.5b
T2G Tradegate Wertpapierhandelsbank
86.6xn/a€2.2b
JDC JDC Group
56.9x24.8%€317.8m
BFV Berliner Effektengesellschaft
59.4xn/a€816.3m
DSE Daiwa Securities Group
9.7x1.7%€1.4t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: DSE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the peer average (53.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does DSE's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/aUS$404.56m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.8x-18.2%US$205.92m
VG8 Varengold Bank
1.8xn/aUS$24.01m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.68m
No more companies available in this PE range
DSE 9.7xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: DSE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (19.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is DSE's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

DSE PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.7x
Fair PE Ratio15.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: DSE is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst DSE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€6.05
€7.08
+17.1%
8.7%€8.22€6.39n/a8
Nov ’25€5.90
€7.08
+20.0%
8.7%€8.21€6.39n/a8
Oct ’25€6.15
€7.66
+24.5%
8.7%€8.56€6.92n/a6
Sep ’25€6.50
€7.75
+19.2%
6.4%€8.47€7.23n/a6
Aug ’25€6.95
€7.12
+2.4%
6.0%€7.84€6.74n/a4
Jul ’25€7.00
€7.12
+1.7%
6.0%€7.84€6.74n/a4
Jun ’25€7.05
€7.08
+0.5%
8.2%€7.95€6.31n/a4
May ’25€6.60
€6.44
-2.4%
8.3%€7.05€5.62n/a4
Apr ’25€6.85
€6.60
-3.7%
6.7%€7.06€5.83n/a5
Mar ’25€6.75
€6.09
-9.8%
14.7%€7.07€4.63n/a5
Feb ’25€6.40
€5.99
-6.4%
17.0%€7.16€4.69n/a5
Jan ’25€5.70
€5.48
-3.9%
18.3%€7.35€4.19n/a6
Dec ’24€5.90
€5.22
-11.5%
17.0%€6.94€3.96n/a7
Nov ’24€5.90
€4.74
-19.7%
11.6%€5.67€4.05€5.907
Oct ’24€5.40
€4.68
-13.3%
12.1%€5.32€3.67€6.157
Sep ’24€5.25
€4.36
-16.9%
12.8%€5.20€3.68€6.507
Aug ’24€4.88
€4.23
-13.2%
12.6%€5.20€3.52€6.957
Jul ’24€4.66
€4.37
-6.2%
12.1%€5.53€3.74€7.007
Jun ’24€4.20
€4.37
+4.1%
12.1%€5.53€3.74€7.057
May ’24€4.14
€4.22
+1.9%
7.5%€4.51€3.59€6.607
Apr ’24€4.26
€4.40
+3.2%
10.3%€4.97€3.69€6.857
Mar ’24€4.30
€4.31
+0.3%
10.4%€4.86€3.61€6.757
Feb ’24€4.26
€4.25
-0.3%
9.5%€4.70€3.67€6.408
Jan ’24€4.04
€4.13
+2.2%
8.9%€4.63€3.64€5.708
Dec ’23€4.20
€4.17
-0.7%
13.8%€5.51€3.54€5.909
Nov ’23€4.06
€4.16
+2.5%
13.5%€5.51€3.54€5.909

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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