The Carlyle Group Inc.

DB:3VU Stock Report

Market Cap: €17.1b

Carlyle Group Valuation

Is 3VU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3VU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
€58.76
Fair Value
17.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
18
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 3VU (€48.37) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€58.76)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3VU is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3VU?

Key metric: As 3VU is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 3VU. This is calculated by dividing 3VU's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 3VU's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.4x
EarningsUS$1.02b
Market CapUS$17.73b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 3VU's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 3VU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average12.9x
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
15x11.5%€9.8b
MLP MLP
12.2x7.8%€784.0m
DBAN Deutsche Beteiligungs
9.4x35.3%€444.9m
O4B OVB Holding
15.1x3.5%€279.3m
3VU Carlyle Group
17.4x8.1%€17.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 3VU is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the peer average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 3VU's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

3 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.9x-19.3%US$208.16m
SPT6 Sparta
3.1xn/aUS$202.58m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.65m
No more companies available in this PE range
3VU 17.4xIndustry Avg. 18.9xNo. of Companies8PE01632486480+
3 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 3VU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (18.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3VU's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3VU PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.4x
Fair PE Ratio19.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 3VU is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3VU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€48.37
€55.45
+14.6%
12.0%€80.06€48.23n/a18
Feb ’26€55.14
€55.40
+0.5%
12.8%€80.67€48.02n/a18
Jan ’26€48.58
€54.58
+12.4%
14.6%€81.98€45.33n/a17
Dec ’25€49.81
€53.12
+6.6%
15.7%€81.13€42.00n/a17
Nov ’25€46.42
€46.80
+0.8%
16.2%€71.82€39.59n/a17
Oct ’25€38.22
€42.63
+11.5%
14.0%€57.48€34.13n/a17
Sep ’25€35.67
€42.54
+19.3%
14.0%€57.22€33.98n/a16
Aug ’25€45.42
€44.40
-2.2%
14.7%€63.43€34.93n/a16
Jul ’25€36.66
€45.12
+23.1%
14.5%€63.33€34.46n/a15
Jun ’25€38.48
€44.99
+16.9%
14.5%€63.12€34.34n/a15
May ’25€42.27
€48.01
+13.6%
15.5%€69.21€34.61n/a15
Apr ’25€43.60
€46.86
+7.5%
14.1%€59.58€34.45n/a15
Mar ’25€41.80
€45.89
+9.8%
14.3%€59.06€34.14n/a15
Feb ’25€36.40
€39.40
+8.2%
18.7%€60.65€28.49€55.1416
Jan ’25€37.00
€35.17
-4.9%
22.7%€53.13€23.82€48.5815
Dec ’24€30.80
€34.67
+12.6%
22.0%€53.29€23.89€49.8115
Nov ’24€25.80
€35.44
+37.4%
18.6%€50.04€28.33€46.4215
Oct ’24€28.20
€35.47
+25.8%
18.0%€53.34€28.51€38.2216
Sep ’24€29.60
€35.47
+19.8%
18.0%€53.34€28.51€35.6716
Aug ’24€32.00
€34.65
+8.3%
19.2%€53.57€25.89€45.4216
Jul ’24€28.80
€33.01
+14.6%
21.7%€50.17€25.54€36.6616
Jun ’24€25.20
€33.73
+33.9%
21.7%€51.27€26.10€38.4816
May ’24€26.60
€37.30
+40.2%
20.7%€58.86€26.26€42.2716
Apr ’24€27.21
€39.30
+44.4%
19.4%€59.00€26.74€43.6016
Mar ’24€32.23
€40.17
+24.6%
19.5%€59.69€27.05€41.8015
Feb ’24€32.43
€38.40
+18.4%
23.3%€55.90€24.74€36.4015
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 18 Analysts
€56.08
Fair Value
13.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
18
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/12 05:50
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/11 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

The Carlyle Group Inc. is covered by 27 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Roger FreemanBarclays
Benjamin BudishBarclays
David ChiaveriniBMO Capital Markets Equity Research