The Carlyle Group Inc.

DB:3VU Stock Report

Market Cap: €18.3b

Carlyle Group Valuation

Is 3VU undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 3VU when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 3VU (€50.4) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€62.71)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 3VU is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 3VU?

Key metric: As 3VU is barely profitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for 3VU. This is calculated by dividing 3VU's market cap by their current revenue.
What is 3VU's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio4.2x
SalesUS$4.64b
Market CapUS$19.19b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does 3VU's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for 3VU vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average2.1x
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
2x-4.3%€7.8b
DBAN Deutsche Beteiligungs
5.8x41.7%€426.4m
MLP MLP
0.6x2.3%€640.5m
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
0.1xn/a€392.2m
3VU Carlyle Group
4.2x6.2%€19.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: 3VU is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the peer average (2.1x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does 3VU's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

22 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
MLP MLP
0.6x2.3%US$673.63m
MUX Mutares SE KGaA
0.09x10.5%US$509.72m
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
0.2x0.01%US$500.05m
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
0.1xn/aUS$410.89m
3VU 4.2xIndustry Avg. 2.8xNo. of Companies22PS048121620+
22 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: 3VU is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (2.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 3VU's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

3VU PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio4.2x
Fair PS Ratio4.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: 3VU is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (4.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 3VU forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€50.40
€52.80
+4.8%
15.6%€80.99€41.92n/a17
Nov ’25€46.42
€46.80
+0.8%
16.2%€71.82€39.59n/a17
Oct ’25€38.22
€42.63
+11.5%
14.0%€57.48€34.13n/a17
Sep ’25€35.67
€42.54
+19.3%
14.0%€57.22€33.98n/a16
Aug ’25€45.42
€44.40
-2.2%
14.7%€63.43€34.93n/a16
Jul ’25€36.66
€45.12
+23.1%
14.5%€63.33€34.46n/a15
Jun ’25€38.48
€44.99
+16.9%
14.5%€63.12€34.34n/a15
May ’25€42.27
€48.01
+13.6%
15.5%€69.21€34.61n/a15
Apr ’25€43.60
€46.86
+7.5%
14.1%€59.58€34.45n/a15
Mar ’25€41.80
€45.89
+9.8%
14.3%€59.06€34.14n/a15
Feb ’25€36.40
€39.40
+8.2%
18.7%€60.65€28.49n/a16
Jan ’25€37.00
€35.17
-4.9%
22.7%€53.13€23.82n/a15
Dec ’24€30.80
€34.67
+12.6%
22.0%€53.29€23.89n/a15
Nov ’24€25.80
€35.44
+37.4%
18.6%€50.04€28.33€46.4215
Oct ’24€28.20
€35.47
+25.8%
18.0%€53.34€28.51€38.2216
Sep ’24€29.60
€35.47
+19.8%
18.0%€53.34€28.51€35.6716
Aug ’24€32.00
€34.65
+8.3%
19.2%€53.57€25.89€45.4216
Jul ’24€28.80
€33.01
+14.6%
21.7%€50.17€25.54€36.6616
Jun ’24€25.20
€33.73
+33.9%
21.7%€51.27€26.10€38.4816
May ’24€26.60
€37.30
+40.2%
20.7%€58.86€26.26€42.2716
Apr ’24€27.21
€39.30
+44.4%
19.4%€59.00€26.74€43.6016
Mar ’24€32.23
€40.17
+24.6%
19.5%€59.69€27.05€41.8015
Feb ’24€32.43
€38.40
+18.4%
23.3%€55.90€24.74€36.4015
Jan ’24€28.90
€37.96
+31.4%
24.7%€56.57€27.34€37.0015
Dec ’23€30.25
€38.63
+27.7%
24.9%€57.26€28.14€30.8015
Nov ’23€27.89
€45.69
+63.8%
23.9%€63.46€30.71€25.8015

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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