ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.

DB:2AR Stock Report

Market Cap: €996.4m

ARMOUR Residential REIT Valuation

Is 2AR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2AR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 2AR's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 2AR's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2AR?

Key metric: As 2AR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2AR. This is calculated by dividing 2AR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2AR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.7x
EarningsUS$119.71m
Market CapUS$1.04b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2AR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2AR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.4x
MLP MLP
10.1x7.8%€649.2m
FTK flatexDEGIRO
12.4x8.4%€1.4b
GLJ Grenke
9.5x25.2%€701.5m
ARLN Aareal Bank
13.7x24.6%€2.0b
2AR ARMOUR Residential REIT
8.7x64.4%€1.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2AR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the peer average (11.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2AR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2AR 8.7xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2AR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the Global Mortgage REITs industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2AR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2AR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.7x
Fair PE Ratio29.2x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2AR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.7x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (29.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2AR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€17.79
€19.24
+8.1%
3.1%€20.03€18.60n/a3
Nov ’25€17.11
€18.99
+11.0%
2.0%€19.45€18.53n/a3
Oct ’25€17.95
€18.50
+3.1%
2.0%€18.95€18.05n/a3
Sep ’25€18.44
€18.48
+0.2%
4.1%€19.40€17.55n/a3
Aug ’25€18.69
€18.48
-1.1%
4.1%€19.40€17.55n/a3
Jul ’25€17.78
€18.21
+2.4%
2.4%€18.52€17.59n/a3
Jun ’25€17.74
€17.66
-0.4%
5.3%€18.59€16.73n/a2
May ’25€16.97
€17.75
+4.6%
5.3%€18.68€16.82n/a2
Apr ’25€18.00
€17.71
-1.6%
3.9%€18.40€17.02n/a2
Mar ’25€18.10
€17.69
-2.3%
3.9%€18.38€17.00n/a2
Feb ’25€18.00
€17.69
-1.7%
3.9%€18.38€17.00n/a2
Jan ’25€17.60
€17.52
-0.5%
3.9%€18.20€16.83n/a2
Sep ’24€22.44
€25.64
+14.2%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€18.442
Aug ’24€22.91
€25.64
+11.9%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€18.692
Jul ’24€24.02
€25.64
+6.7%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€17.782
Jun ’24€23.35
€25.64
+9.8%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€17.742
May ’24€22.70
€26.01
+14.6%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€16.973
Apr ’24€23.62
€26.01
+10.1%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€18.003
Mar ’24€24.31
€26.01
+7.0%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€18.103
Feb ’24€29.01
€26.01
-10.3%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€18.003
Jan ’24€26.27
€29.27
+11.4%
4.0%€30.11€27.60€17.603
Dec ’23€27.64
€29.27
+5.9%
4.0%€30.11€27.60€16.903
Nov ’23€27.40
€29.27
+6.8%
4.0%€30.11€27.60€14.113

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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