ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.

DB:2AR Stock Report

Market Cap: €1.0b

ARMOUR Residential REIT Valuation

Is 2AR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2AR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 2AR's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate 2AR's fair value for valuation analysis.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2AR?

Key metric: As 2AR is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2AR. This is calculated by dividing 2AR's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2AR's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio8.8x
EarningsUS$119.71m
Market CapUS$1.05b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2AR's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2AR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.7x
HYQ Hypoport
38x28.9%€1.2b
MLP MLP
10.2x7.8%€655.8m
GLJ Grenke
9.1x25.2%€678.6m
FTK flatexDEGIRO
13.7x8.1%€1.6b
2AR ARMOUR Residential REIT
8.8x73.7%€1.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2AR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the peer average (17.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2AR's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
2AR 8.8xIndustry Avg. 10.5xNo. of Companies6PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2AR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the Global Mortgage REITs industry average (10.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2AR's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2AR PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio8.8x
Fair PE Ratio33.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2AR is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (33.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2AR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€17.84
€19.12
+7.2%
3.1%€19.91€18.48n/a3
Dec ’25€17.72
€19.24
+8.6%
3.1%€20.03€18.60n/a3
Nov ’25€17.11
€18.50
+8.1%
2.0%€18.95€18.05n/a3
Oct ’25€17.95
€18.50
+3.1%
2.0%€18.95€18.05n/a3
Sep ’25€18.44
€18.48
+0.2%
4.1%€19.40€17.55n/a3
Aug ’25€18.69
€18.48
-1.1%
4.1%€19.40€17.55n/a3
Jul ’25€17.78
€18.21
+2.4%
2.4%€18.52€17.59n/a3
Jun ’25€17.74
€17.66
-0.4%
5.3%€18.59€16.73n/a2
May ’25€16.97
€17.75
+4.6%
5.3%€18.68€16.82n/a2
Apr ’25€18.00
€17.71
-1.6%
3.9%€18.40€17.02n/a2
Mar ’25€18.10
€17.69
-2.3%
3.9%€18.38€17.00n/a2
Feb ’25€18.00
€17.69
-1.7%
3.9%€18.38€17.00n/a2
Jan ’25€17.60
€17.52
-0.5%
3.9%€18.20€16.83n/a2
Sep ’24€22.44
€25.64
+14.2%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€18.442
Aug ’24€22.91
€25.64
+11.9%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€18.692
Jul ’24€24.02
€25.64
+6.7%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€17.782
Jun ’24€23.35
€25.64
+9.8%
9.1%€27.97€23.31€17.742
May ’24€22.70
€26.01
+14.6%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€16.973
Apr ’24€23.62
€26.01
+10.1%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€18.003
Mar ’24€24.31
€26.01
+7.0%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€18.103
Feb ’24€29.01
€26.01
-10.3%
7.6%€27.95€23.29€18.003
Jan ’24€26.27
€29.27
+11.4%
4.0%€30.11€27.60€17.603
Dec ’23€27.64
€29.27
+5.9%
4.0%€30.11€27.60€16.903

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 01:12
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc. is covered by 17 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Mark DeVriesBarclays
Kenneth BruceBofA Global Research
Matthew HowlettB. Riley Securities, Inc.