Main Street Capital Corporation

DB:13M Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.8b

Main Street Capital Valuation

Is 13M undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 13M when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 13M (€54.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€65.39)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 13M is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 13M?

Key metric: As 13M is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 13M. This is calculated by dividing 13M's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 13M's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.6x
EarningsUS$472.93m
Market CapUS$5.03b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 13M's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 13M vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.7x
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13.2x13.0%€7.9b
MLP MLP
10.2x7.8%€655.8m
AR40 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.4xn/a€343.3m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.8x-19.3%€200.1m
13M Main Street Capital
10.6x-21.7%€5.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 13M is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the peer average (7.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 13M's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AR40 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.4xn/aUS$357.32m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.8x-19.3%US$208.28m
VG8 Varengold Bank
2.1xn/aUS$26.97m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.68m
No more companies available in this PE range
13M 10.6xIndustry Avg. 19.6xNo. of Companies7PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 13M is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (19.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 13M's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

13M PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.6x
Fair PE Ratio9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 13M is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 13M forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€54.13
€47.12
-13.0%
5.5%€49.39€42.75n/a5
Dec ’25€52.28
€47.12
-9.9%
5.5%€49.39€42.75n/a5
Nov ’25€47.40
€44.94
-5.2%
6.3%€47.89€40.52n/a5
Oct ’25€45.50
€43.60
-4.2%
6.3%€46.46€39.31n/a5
Sep ’25€44.75
€43.60
-2.6%
6.3%€46.46€39.31n/a5
Aug ’25€47.53
€44.86
-5.6%
6.8%€47.80€39.53n/a5
Jul ’25€47.02
€44.86
-4.6%
7.2%€47.93€39.64n/a6
Jun ’25€45.20
€44.86
-0.8%
7.2%€47.93€39.64n/a6
May ’25€46.50
€43.22
-7.1%
6.1%€48.50€40.11n/a6
Apr ’25€43.96
€41.48
-5.6%
2.9%€43.13€39.46n/a5
Mar ’25€41.95
€42.14
+0.5%
3.5%€44.29€39.68n/a6
Feb ’25€41.21
€40.85
-0.9%
5.5%€44.06€37.63n/a6
Jan ’25€39.61
€41.19
+4.0%
4.6%€43.84€38.24n/a6
Dec ’24€38.18
€41.19
+7.9%
4.6%€43.84€38.24€52.286
Nov ’24€36.25
€41.77
+15.2%
4.9%€44.62€38.92€47.406
Oct ’24€38.51
€40.35
+4.8%
4.9%€43.10€37.60€45.506
Sep ’24€37.83
€40.35
+6.7%
4.9%€43.10€37.60€44.756
Aug ’24€38.59
€38.89
+0.8%
4.9%€40.97€36.51€47.536
Jul ’24€37.23
€40.02
+7.5%
4.9%€42.15€37.57€47.026
Jun ’24€37.14
€39.93
+7.5%
4.7%€42.38€37.78€45.206
May ’24€36.79
€40.49
+10.0%
4.3%€43.14€38.45€46.506
Apr ’24€36.18
€40.49
+11.9%
4.3%€43.14€38.45€43.966
Mar ’24€39.54
€40.49
+2.4%
4.3%€43.14€38.45€41.956
Feb ’24€36.22
€38.81
+7.2%
5.7%€43.37€36.77€41.216
Jan ’24€34.60
€38.81
+12.2%
5.7%€43.37€36.77€39.616
Dec ’23€36.55
€39.82
+9.0%
6.7%€44.41€37.65€38.184

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/26 10:58
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Main Street Capital Corporation is covered by 12 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Bryce RoweBaird
Bryce RoweB. Riley Securities, Inc.
Christopher Whitbread NolanFBR Capital Markets & Co.