Main Street Capital Corporation

DB:13M Stock Report

Market Cap: €4.6b

Main Street Capital Valuation

Is 13M undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 13M when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 13M (€51.69) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€67.03)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 13M is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 13M?

Key metric: As 13M is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 13M. This is calculated by dividing 13M's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 13M's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10.1x
EarningsUS$472.93m
Market CapUS$4.76b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 13M's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 13M vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.7x
DWS DWS Group GmbH KGaA
13.1x12.7%€7.9b
MLP MLP
9.9x8.3%€642.7m
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/a€390.6m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.7x-18.2%€198.1m
13M Main Street Capital
10.1x-21.7%€4.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 13M is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the peer average (7.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 13M's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the DE Capital Markets Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AR4 AURELIUS Equity Opportunities SE KGaA
3.9xn/aUS$406.78m
HXCK Ernst Russ
3.7x-18.2%US$207.56m
VG8 Varengold Bank
1.8xn/aUS$24.05m
XE8 Black Sea Property
0.7xn/aUS$7.68m
No more companies available in this PE range
13M 10.1xIndustry Avg. 20.3xNo. of Companies6PE01632486480+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 13M is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the German Capital Markets industry average (20.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 13M's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

13M PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10.1x
Fair PE Ratio9.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 13M is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 13M forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€51.69
€47.12
-8.9%
5.5%€49.39€42.75n/a5
Nov ’25€47.40
€44.94
-5.2%
6.3%€47.89€40.52n/a5
Oct ’25€45.50
€43.60
-4.2%
6.3%€46.46€39.31n/a5
Sep ’25€44.75
€43.60
-2.6%
6.3%€46.46€39.31n/a5
Aug ’25€47.53
€44.86
-5.6%
6.8%€47.80€39.53n/a5
Jul ’25€47.02
€44.86
-4.6%
7.2%€47.93€39.64n/a6
Jun ’25€45.20
€44.86
-0.8%
7.2%€47.93€39.64n/a6
May ’25€46.50
€43.22
-7.1%
6.1%€48.50€40.11n/a6
Apr ’25€43.96
€41.48
-5.6%
2.9%€43.13€39.46n/a5
Mar ’25€41.95
€42.14
+0.5%
3.5%€44.29€39.68n/a6
Feb ’25€41.21
€40.85
-0.9%
5.5%€44.06€37.63n/a6
Jan ’25€39.61
€41.19
+4.0%
4.6%€43.84€38.24n/a6
Dec ’24€38.18
€41.19
+7.9%
4.6%€43.84€38.24n/a6
Nov ’24€36.25
€41.77
+15.2%
4.9%€44.62€38.92€47.406
Oct ’24€38.51
€40.35
+4.8%
4.9%€43.10€37.60€45.506
Sep ’24€37.83
€40.35
+6.7%
4.9%€43.10€37.60€44.756
Aug ’24€38.59
€38.89
+0.8%
4.9%€40.97€36.51€47.536
Jul ’24€37.23
€40.02
+7.5%
4.9%€42.15€37.57€47.026
Jun ’24€37.14
€39.93
+7.5%
4.7%€42.38€37.78€45.206
May ’24€36.79
€40.49
+10.0%
4.3%€43.14€38.45€46.506
Apr ’24€36.18
€40.49
+11.9%
4.3%€43.14€38.45€43.966
Mar ’24€39.54
€40.49
+2.4%
4.3%€43.14€38.45€41.956
Feb ’24€36.22
€38.81
+7.2%
5.7%€43.37€36.77€41.216
Jan ’24€34.60
€38.81
+12.2%
5.7%€43.37€36.77€39.616
Dec ’23€36.55
€39.82
+9.0%
6.7%€44.41€37.65€38.184
Nov ’23€37.61
€42.51
+13.0%
7.5%€47.85€39.71€36.254

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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