Advanced Flower Capital Inc.

DB:0FG Stock Report

Market Cap: €200.5m

Advanced Flower Capital Valuation

Is 0FG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0FG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 0FG (€9) is trading below our estimate of fair value (€11.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0FG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0FG?

Key metric: As 0FG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0FG. This is calculated by dividing 0FG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0FG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio40.3x
EarningsUS$5.25m
Market CapUS$211.62m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0FG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0FG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.4x
BWB Baader Bank
15.3xn/a€199.6m
MPCK MPC Münchmeyer Petersen Capital
12.5x5.4%€208.0m
OT8 Eleving Group
9.3x29.7%€190.9m
QB7 Quirin Privatbank
20.3xn/a€164.1m
0FG Advanced Flower Capital
40.3x39.7%€211.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0FG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the peer average (14.3x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0FG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Mortgage REITs Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
0FG 40.3xIndustry Avg. 10.7xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0FG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the Global Mortgage REITs industry average (10.7x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0FG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0FG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio40.3x
Fair PE Ratio18x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0FG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (40.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0FG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
Current€9.00
€11.83
+31.5%
12.0%€13.25€9.47n/a4
Nov ’25€8.80
€11.16
+26.8%
15.7%€12.75€8.20n/a4
Oct ’25€9.00
€10.87
+20.8%
18.0%€12.68€8.15n/a3
Sep ’25€9.25
€11.79
+27.5%
22.6%€14.52€8.16n/a3
Aug ’25€8.15
€12.37
+51.7%
18.7%€14.84€9.27n/a3
Jul ’25€11.10
€12.37
+11.4%
18.7%€14.84€9.27n/a3
Jun ’25€10.50
€12.37
+17.8%
18.7%€14.84€9.27n/a3
May ’25€10.90
€12.81
+17.5%
19.2%€15.00€9.37n/a3
Apr ’25€11.30
€13.42
+18.8%
25.1%€17.39€9.15n/a3
Mar ’25€10.40
€13.53
+30.1%
25.1%€17.53€9.23n/a3
Feb ’25€10.60
€14.25
+34.4%
22.6%€17.46€9.19n/a4
Jan ’25€10.80
€14.25
+31.9%
22.6%€17.46€9.19n/a4
Dec ’24€10.20
€14.54
+42.5%
22.6%€17.82€9.38n/a4
Nov ’24€9.85
€16.32
+65.7%
30.9%€23.32€9.33€8.804
Oct ’24€10.80
€16.32
+51.1%
30.9%€23.32€9.33€9.004
Sep ’24€12.00
€16.09
+34.1%
30.9%€22.99€9.20€9.254
Aug ’24€12.30
€15.50
+26.0%
30.0%€23.06€9.23€8.155
Jul ’24€11.60
€15.50
+33.6%
30.0%€23.06€9.23€11.105
Jun ’24€10.60
€15.50
+46.2%
30.0%€23.06€9.23€10.505
May ’24€10.70
€19.28
+80.2%
24.4%€28.44€13.27€10.906
Apr ’24€10.80
€19.28
+78.5%
24.4%€28.44€13.27€11.306
Mar ’24€14.80
€21.15
+42.9%
19.2%€28.30€15.57€10.406
Feb ’24€14.10
€21.40
+51.8%
17.7%€28.42€15.63€10.607
Jan ’24€14.50
€22.57
+55.7%
16.7%€29.78€17.37€10.807
Dec ’23€16.50
€22.57
+36.8%
16.7%€29.78€17.37€10.207
Nov ’23€17.00
€23.25
+36.8%
16.7%€30.68€17.90€9.857

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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